When Will Coal Price Rise Lack Reappear

Coal prices have remained stable for up to four days from Tuesday to Friday, and are expected to remain low this week or to fall slightly by 1-2 yuan per ton. So when will the real rise come?

1. This round of coal price rise is not driven by bullish demand.

Since September 5, affected by environmental safety supervision and control of coal management tickets in the main producing area, coal mine production and foreign transportation have been affected, and railway transportation has decreased, which has tightened the port's high-quality resources and increased the coal price. Under the coal price hanging upside down, traders began to actively bid, and individual small and medium-sized households appeared to replenish their warehouses, which led to a small increase in coal prices. But in fact, downstream demand is not good. First, power plants are generally in high inventory, continue to consume their own coal storage, only to maintain rigid pull and transport of Changxie coal; second, imported coal can not be restrained, continue to enter the domestic market in large quantities, coastal power plants are supplemented; third, the cooling weather, power plant daily consumption downward, to just appear signs of rising coal prices cast a shadow. This round of coal prices has not been appreciated by everyone since the moment they rose; indeed, after the price rose by 7 CNY/ton, with the downstream demand weakening, the daily consumption of power plants declining, as well as the large-scale replenishment of reservoirs has not yet been launched, the cement industry has not yet participated in the transaction and other factors, coal prices appear incapable of rising, it is expected that coal prices will appear small this week. The amplitude fell. 

2. When will the weak supply and demand in coastal coal market end?

At present, it is on the eve of National Day. The production restriction and emission reduction of the production-oriented enterprises in the north of the Yellow River affect the coal consumption and power consumption. The hydropower output in the South keeps good, the thermal power is not high, and the enthusiasm of purchasing and pulling power plants is not high. On the upstream side, due to the maintenance of Daqin Line and the low enthusiasm of traders, the arrival of coal trucks has declined. It is expected that before National Day, coal-pulling vessels arriving at the Bohai Rim Port will continue to maintain a low position, the coastal coal market will maintain a weak trend of supply and demand, and the coal price in the port market will stabilize.

3.October will usher in phased procurement.

Entering October, especially after National Day, with the resumption of production in cement, chemical industry and other industries, the demand for coal in the market has increased; in addition, with the beginning of winter coal reserve, the enthusiasm of pulling and transporting of some small and medium-sized power plants has been restored, and the quantity of purchasing has increased, which has led to the rise of coal prices in ports. On the upstream side, the advanced production capacity of coal mines will be released faster, the market will gradually become warmer, more ships will come to harbor to pull coal, and the double-high supply and demand in the coastal coal market will reappear.