Expert: Industrial enterprise profit growth is expected to pick up in September

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 27th, profits of Industrial Enterprises above the scale dropped by 2.0% compared with the same period last year. From January to August, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above the national scale fell by 1.7% year on year, the decline was the same as that of January to July. Analysts pointed out that due to the slowdown in the growth of industrial production and sales, the expansion of the decline in the ex-factory price of industrial products and the adverse factors of the super typhoon, industrial profits declined slightly in August compared with the same period last year, but there were many bright spots in the benefits of industrial enterprises in January-August. In addition, from the high-frequency data, industrial profits will rebound in September, and industrial profits will remain stable in the first three quarters. The statistical data shows that the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above the scale of August is 517.79 billion yuan, which is 2.0% lower than that of the previous year, and 2.6% higher than that of July.

Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, said that from the month of August, the industrial profits were mainly down by the slowdown in the growth of industrial production and sales, the decline in the price of industrial products and the unfavorable factors of the super typhoon, and the industrial profit fell by 2%. It should be pointed out that there are many bright spots in the benefit of industrial enterprises from January to August. In terms of industry, the profit growth of major industries such as automobile, electronics and non-ferrous metals has improved. From January to August, the profit of automobile and electronics industry decreased by 19.0% and 2.7% year on year, respectively, but the decline was 4.2 and 3.6 percentage points narrower than that of January to July. The profit of non-ferrous industry increased by 9.7% year on year, and the growth rate was 3.7 percentage points faster than that of January to July. The profit of private enterprises and small enterprises keeps increasing according to the types of enterprises.

From January to August, the profits of private enterprises and small enterprises increased by 6.5% and 10.3% respectively year on year. The profit decline of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises was narrowed. In January-August, the profit of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises decreased by 5.8% compared with the same period last year, and the decline was 1.1 percentage point narrower than that in January-July.

In addition, tax cuts and fee cuts promote the profitability of enterprises and help industrial enterprises to stabilize their profits. The profit margin of business income in January-August was 5.87%, which was the same as that in January-July, and was 0.01 percentage points higher than that in January-June. The "ammunition" of the policy is still sufficient. Huang Libin, spokesman of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Director of the Bureau of Operation Monitoring and Coordination, said at a news conference recently that the five key tasks for promoting the smooth operation and high-quality development of the industrial economy are: first, to adhere to innovation-driven development; second, to strengthen the basic capacity of industry; third, to further enhance the level of the industrial chain; fourth, to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises; and fifth, to promote the development of the industrial economy. Strive to create a good environment for development. Zhang Jun, chief economist of Stanley Huaxin securities, believes that the mitigation of tax pressure will push the overall industrial enterprises' profitability to improve, and the downward pace of industrial production will slow down. However, insufficient demand will inhibit the steady growth of profits of industrial enterprises in the future.

Zhang Jun said that considering the current policy "ammunition" is still sufficient, the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies will form a certain support for economic growth in the year. It is expected that the overall investment situation will be marginally improved and the enthusiasm of industrial production will be correspondingly boosted under the condition of a slight recovery in capital construction.

The CITIC Securities Collection Team believes that the high-frequency data from September to now have improved compared with July and August, which is consistent with the characteristics of the month-end rebound at the end of this year. Industrial profits are expected to rebound in September and remain stable in the first three quarters. Shen Wanhongyuan Securities Report believes that the current industrial enterprises to inventory has slowed down, the follow-up is expected to reverse to replenish the warehouse, industrial demand is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. In terms of profit margin, it is expected that the implementation of continuous coordination between fee reduction and financing environment will continue to drive down the cost rate. Comprehensive analysis shows that demand for industrial products is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, margin of profit margin is better, hedging the impact of price decline, and supporting the recovery of profit growth of industrial enterprises.