The Coastal Coal Market will launch a Jedi counterattack in the fourth quarter

This year, the downward pressure on the macro-economy has increased, and industrial demand has continued to weaken. In addition, the escalation of Sino US trade frictions has a great impact on coal consumption and electricity consumption in the eastern region. In addition, the level of production and absorption of non-fossil energy such as hydropower, nuclear power and new energy has increased, and the demand for thermal power has been squeezed. In the first half of the year, China's coal production, railway and port coal shipments have maintained a slight growth trend, and the situation is relatively optimistic. At the same time, it has also contributed to a substantial increase in coal storage in power plants. In summer, under the condition of high inventory, the power plant reduces the purchase of domestic coal, resulting in the phenomenon that the market is not in peak season, while the imported coal has increased significantly, squeezing out the market share of domestic coal. This summer, the peak production of cement, chemical industry and other industries, electricity consumption and coal consumption decreased; in addition, affected by typhoons and rainstorms, coal export channels were blocked, affecting normal transport. In the 782 months, the volume of coal transportation in the ring port port decreased by about 11000000 tons compared with the same period last year, which offset the increase in the first half of the year. As of late September, the volume of coal transportation in China's ring port has been in deficit compared with the same period last year.

The so-called "difficulties and hopes coexist, opportunities and challenges are in the same place". The coastal coal market will still take a turn for the better. The price of coal in the port market is expected to rebound in the four quarter. With the help of the peak of the winter coal consumption and the implementation of the measures to restrict the import of coal, the coal transportation situation in the ring port is more than that in the three quarter. Relatively better, coal throughput will rebound strongly, and the annual task is expected to be flat compared with the same period last year.

1. The shortage of high-quality resources has helped to keep coal prices firm.

The Datong Qinhuangdao line and the Mongol Hebei coal transportation railway will increase the quantity of coal supplied by the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Power Plant, and the coal resources to the ring port will probably be tight.

2. The domestic market will be better if imported coal is limited. July and August, the domestic coastal coal transport market is oversupply of supply and demand; one of the important reasons is that China imports coal up to 32 million tons/month. If in the next three months of this year, China imports coal from 32 million tons to 25 million tons per month, a direct drop of 7 million tons, the 7 million tons of coal will be transferred to the domestic market; then, the domestic coal market will be lifted. Zhenzhen, mining ports, navigation and electricity and other parties will become more busy, boosting the situation of coal transportation.

3. Production and operation activities increased and coal consumption resumed.

Towards the end of recent years, in order to fulfill the annual task target, the production of southern industrial enterprises has entered a sprint stage; together with the implementation of a series of policies such as "make-up board" and "new infrastructure", the policy of increasing investment growth rate, reducing taxes and fees will be promoted, and the consumption growth rate is expected to stabilize. In recent years, the southern industrial enterprises are trying to catch up with the production progress, industrial power consumption will recover, driving the increase of coal demand, and the daily consumption of power plants will recover to the mid-high level. In the fourth quarter, the demand for coal in southern China was stronger than that in the third quarter. 

4. When winter comes, hydropower is weakened. The cold winter has come down, the water and electricity have been weakened, the number of outsourced electricity has decreased, the pressure of thermal power in coastal areas has increased, not only the demand for coastal areas has been raised, but also the power plants along the Yangtze River have been reduced by electricity and water, and the demand for coal and electricity has increased. The increase in coal consumption, such as cement and chemical industry, has also led to an increase in coal consumption and electricity consumption, and a good market. It is worth noting that during the cold winter season, the northern port encountered cold winter, the freezer and the frozen coal increased, the transportation efficiency decreased, the coal supply was affected, the coal storage in the Bohai port would remain low, and the coal price in the port market was ushering in a new round of rise.