iron ore rose from decline to CISA: there is a downward space in the later stage

On October 8, a reporter from the Beijing News learned from the China Steel Association that in September, the overall operation of the steel industry was stable. Restricted by the situation that supply exceeds demand in the iron ore market, the price of iron ore fluctuates in a narrow range. With the implementation of environmental protection and production restriction measures in autumn and winter heating season, the situation of supply exceeding demand in iron ore market is more prominent in the later period, and the price of iron ore still has downward space.

According to CIOPI monitoring, at the end of September, China Iron Ore Price Index (CIOPI) was 337.6 points, 24.58 points higher than that of the previous year, an increase of 7.85%. The domestic iron ore price index was 333.86 points, rising 6.76 points annually, up 2.07%, while the imported iron ore price index was 338.39 points, up 27.95 points annually, up 9.00%.

From the full month situation, the average CIOPI composite index in September was 335.35 points, down 1.24 points from August, a decline of 0.37%. The average price index of domestic iron ore is 330.45 points, which is 14.55 points lower than that of August, with a decline of 4.22%. The average price index of imported iron ore is 336.27 points, up 1.27 points annually, with an increase of 0.38%.

China Steel Association said that the current international situation is complex and grim, and the domestic economy is still facing considerable downward pressure. Affected by the measures of environmental protection and production restriction in autumn and winter heating season, iron and steel output will decrease in the later period, iron ore demand intensity will continue to decline, and iron ore prices still have downward space.

In iron and steel production, according to the statistics of the 10-day report of the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily crude steel output of member iron and steel enterprises in mid-early September was 208.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.68%. It is estimated that the daily output of crude steel in China is 28.099 million tons, which is 0.16% lower than the annual output. Affected by environmental protection measures of heating in autumn and winter, steel production will further decline in the later period. Demand intensity of iron ore shows a downward trend.

In terms of imported ore supply, in August, the national iron ore import volume was 94.86 million tons, the largest monthly import volume since February 2018, an increase of 3.83 million tons annually. At the end of September, the stock of imported iron ore ports in China was 120 million tons, down by 980,000 tons annually, or 0.81%. With the increase of imported iron ore arrival at port and scrap consumption, the supply situation of iron ore will be further relaxed, the situation of supply exceeding demand will be more obvious, and the price will oscillate lower.

China Steel Association said that the high fluctuation of iron ore price is the most important factor affecting the economic benefits of iron and steel enterprises.

According to the CIOPI monitoring, at the end of September, China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 106.09 points, down 0.96% from the beginning of the year and 15.55% from the same period, while CIOPI imported iron ore CIOPI prices increased 30.31% and 22.07% from the beginning of the year.

According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the profits of the member enterprises of China Steel Association decreased by 28.95% from January to August compared with the same period of last year, and the profits of the member enterprises of China Steel Association decreased annually for three consecutive months.