Coastal coal market is worried under domestic and foreign troubles

The situation of domestic coal market is worrying. In the fourth quarter of this year, the market was expected to rebound immediately, but from the performance of the coastal coal market in the first half of October, the situation is still not optimistic. In the off-season, the power plant load is low, the downstream inventory is high, and the purchase desire is not strong; in addition, the imported coal remains high, and continues to encroach on the domestic coal market; in the short term, the coal market is difficult to go well. In the first half of October, the market was still pessimistic. In the third quarter, the coastal coal market was not prosperous in the peak season, and the coal throughput of the port around the Bohai Sea decreased. However, in October, there were still few anchor ships in the port around the Bohai Sea, the coal trade in the port was cold, and the downstream counter offer price was low. After the national day, the transportation of Datong Qinhuangdao line returned to normal, the number of coal trucks entering the port increased significantly, and the inventory pressure increased due to two consecutive closures. At this time, the water volume of coal in the port remained low, resulting in an upward trend of coal storage in the port around Bohai Sea. The coal storage capacity of the whole Bohai Rim port increased from 25.07 million tons at the beginning of the month to 27.76 million tons, among which, the coal storage capacity of Qinhuangdao port increased from 6.08 million tons at the beginning of the month to 7.2 million tons, and the coal storage capacity of Caofeidian port of state investment increased by 640000 tons from the beginning of the month. 2. Port evacuation is on the agenda. Due to the low demand in the downstream and the high quality and low price of imported coal, the number of domestic coal transported by users in the south is shrinking, and the purchase of market coal is even less.

The influx of imported coal has increased the pressure on the domestic coastal coal market, and the port coal price rebound is weak. In addition, there is a rapid increase of coal storage in the port around Bohai Sea, few follow-up forecast ships, and problems in the connection of ships and cargoes. There is a possibility of further increase of coal storage in the port, so the current main task is to distribute coal. It is reported that Caofeidian port will hold a port dredging meeting in recent days, asking the mine to contact customers to speed up the transportation of the coal stored in the port, especially the Mongolian coal which is prone to spontaneous combustion. Affected by the low enthusiasm of downstream procurement and other factors, some traders continue to reduce prices and promote sales, which casts a shadow on the coal market looking forward to a good future; at the same time, it also brings difficulties to the rebound of coal prices. Coal prices are expected to continue to decline this week, but the decline in coal prices is limited, supported by shipping costs. The import coal can not be restrained. In terms of the quantity of imported coal in a single month, in September, China imported 30.28 million tons of coal, which is indeed 2-3 million tons less than that in July and August, but it is not helpful to the domestic coal market. At present, imported coal can not be cleared in other places, which has a certain impact on import traders, but has little impact on large-scale power groups such as the five major electric power groups, and also promotes a large number of imported coal to continue to enter the domestic market. In September, the proportion between the coal import from coastal areas and the coal development and transportation volume of ports around the Bohai Sea reached 1:3.6. According to the current progress, it is estimated that China's import of coal will reach 340 million tons this year, far more than that of last year; it is estimated that the coal shipment volume of China's Bohai Rim port is about 700 million tons.