August 21 news
This week, the overall supply remained tight, with companies holding low inventory levels. As a result, quoted prices rose across the board, and the market saw a slight rebound. As of August 21, the mainstream negotiated price for tank-to-customer pickup in the East China market was around RMB 12,200–12,400 per ton, up RMB 200 per ton from the previous week. In the Shandong market, the mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the region was between RMB 12,050 and RMB 12,150 per ton, an increase of RMB 350 per ton compared to the previous week.
Supply remains persistently tight:
During the week, a 520,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical, a subsidiary of Rongsheng Petrochemical, was shut down for maintenance on August 14 due to a malfunction, affecting a 130,000-ton production line. The shutdown is expected to last around 20 days, and the overall operating load has been reduced to 70%. The restart of the acrylonitrile unit at Jiangsu Sailun has been delayed until early September. A 130,000-ton-per-year acrylonitrile production line at Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. also experienced a short shutdown due to a malfunction. According to statistics, during this week (August 14-20), China's acrylonitrile industry capacity utilization rate dropped to 64.33%, a decrease of 4.99% from the previous period; the weekly output was approximately 75,100 tons, a reduction of 5,800 tons from the previous period. The low capacity utilization rate in the industry has led to a continuous shortage of spot supply, and the inventory of acrylonitrile producers remains low. As of August 19, the total inventory of acrylonitrile plants in China was about 33,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous week.
Downstream demand decline:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries in China decreased. The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 59.70%, a decrease of 1.0% from last week; the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry was 51.48%, a decrease of 1.99% from last week; the capacity utilization rate of acrylamide was 50.19%, a decrease of 0.35% from last week. Zhengjia in Henan province has stopped for maintenance, and overall downstream demand has decreased.
Rising raw material costs:
During the week, raw material costs increased, while the price range of acrylonitrile was adjusted, resulting in a decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of August 21, the mainstream closing reference price for propylene in Shandong, China, was 8840-9000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 8920 CNY/ton, an increase of 345 CNY/ton from the previous week. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 11104 CNY/ton, up 4.02% week-over-week. The average production profit was 1016 CNY/ton, down 500 CNY/ton from the previous week.
Late-stage prediction:
Currently, the supply expectations in the northern market are increasing, as both Tianchen Qixiang and Haijiang's facilities are gradually resuming operations. It is expected that there will be resistance to further increases in spot prices. However, with low inventory levels across companies, there is still motivation to maintain prices. Resources in the eastern China region remain tight, but considering the planned increases for next month, buyers remain cautious. Additionally, from the demand side, many downstream industries are not performing well financially, leading to significant resistance to the current acrylonitrile prices. Transactions within the market are mainly driven by essential buying, which restrains the pace of market recovery. The market may continue to fluctuate within a range. Overall, the outlook for news and information remains unclear, especially with frequent changes in the supply side. Acrylonitrile prices are expected to remain at high levels.
