Where is the bottom line of power coal price?

Both domestic raw coal output and foreign imports have increased, and the loose supply and demand situation has driven down the spot price, which is close to the green range of 570 CNY/ton. Some analysts have pointed out that with the release of the rigid demand for winter storage before the peak season, it is expected that the subsequent port market will improve, and with the market coal price approaching the long-term cooperative pressure level, the drop rate of spot price will slow down and stabilize. It is expected that the downward momentum of spot price will weaken further, and the market will enter the gluing period again, waiting for further signals from both sides. The peak of winter coal consumption in the later period is coming, and the enthusiasm of some users who can't get the imported coal will be improved; it is worth noting that the domestic coal price is close to the bottom, and some users have the heart to copy the bottom.

Next month, the north will enter the heating coal season; while in East China, the temperature will drop, the water and electricity will weaken, the thermal power load will also increase, and the coastal coal market situation may gradually improve. In terms of the latest market, the demand of the northern port market is weak, the downstream price is low, and the transaction is rare. Most traders see the weak market trend in the later period. At present, the mainstream price of cv5500 movable coal is about 575 yuan, and the mainstream price of cv5000 movable coal is about 500-505 yuan. In terms of imported coal, with the domestic price falling, the price of imported coal rising and the advantage of import price difference narrowing, at present, the market inquiry has decreased and the increase of imported coal has slowed down. Now, Indonesia coal (cv3800) boat quoted fob35-36 US dollars, and Australia coal (cv5500) quoted fob53 US dollars. On October 23, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 572 CNY/ton, 2 CNY/ton lower than that of the previous period, 15 CNY/ton or 2.6% lower than that of the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 501 CNY/ton, 2 CNY/ton lower than that of the previous period, 17 CNY/ton or 3.3% lower than that of the same period last month.

Through a trader in Inner Mongolia, China coal resources network learned that the market is almost the same in recent days, with fewer transactions, disorderly quotation of the seller and low purchase pressure of the buyer. It is understood that most of the current delivery is long-term cooperative delivery, and the market coal mainstream (cv5500, s0.6) is willing to go down 2-3 yuan according to the index, but the price is too low to be shipped, and now the cost inversion is still very serious. On the downstream side, as of October 24, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.051 million tons, with a decrease of 34000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, an increase of 183000 tons on a year-on-year basis; the daily coal consumption was 628000 tons, with a increase of 36000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, an increase of 98000 tons on a year-on-year basis; the available days were 25.6 days, with a decrease of 1.6 days in the weekly to environmental ratio, a decrease of 43 days on a year-on-year basis.

In terms of production area, recently, the environmental protection inspection of production area is relatively strict, coal mines and coal plants are not allowed to stack coal in the open air, and road transportation is also affected to a certain extent, while in the recent port market downturn, the enthusiasm of terminal coal consumption enterprises around the mine mouth is not high, the delivery of coal mines is not smooth, and the price is constantly lowered. The coal price in the north of Shanxi Province has been reduced by 10-20 yuan. The sales of coal mine railways are stable, the sales of roads are general, and the overall inventory of environmental protection impact is low. The coal price in Yulin, Shaanxi Province has been reduced by 5-10 yuan, the sales of coal mines is general, the inventory is less, and there is still a price reduction expectation for the future market. The coal price in Erdos, Inner Mongolia, has been reduced by about 10 yuan, the coal mine delivery is poor, and the inventory is under pressure.