The negative spread has widened, with acrylic acid prices continuously falling and showing weakness domestically in China

May 19th, news:

This week, the acrylic acid market first experienced a slow decline before accelerating downward. At the beginning of the week, it was in a sideways consolidation with bearish forces gathering strength. It then entered a continuous decline, breaking through the 9,000 CNY/ton threshold, with bearish momentum being fully released. There was a brief period of sideways consolidation in between, but trading remained sluggish. By the end of the week, prices dropped again, resulting in a significant weekly decline. Throughout the week, prices were under clear pressure, with no effective rebound, showing a standard one-sided bearish trend.

I. Core Data for This Week

According to business data, as of May 12, the price was 9316.67 CNY/ton, and by the weekend on May 18, it fell to 8716.67 CNY/ton; for the entire week, it decreased by 600 CNY/ton, with a weekly price decrease of -6.44%.

II. SpotTong Analysis:

1. Spot Commodity Spread Indicator: Negative Expansion, Downward Momentum Continues to Strengthen

Throughout this week, the 10-day moving average has consistently remained below the 20-day moving average, with the difference continuously negative and the negative gap widening, fully matching the core definition in the rules that a widening negative gap equals accelerated decline.

From the perspective of the moving average pattern, the 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are all showing a steep downward trend, forming a standard bearish arrangement. The short-term moving averages are continuously suppressing the price, with no signs of turning upward.

Technical analysis conclusion: This week's decline was not a passive downtrend, but rather an active market movement characterized by the continuous release of bearish momentum and an accelerating pace of decline, showing a very strong trend.

2. Cycle price 5-level position: At the low of the full cycle, with pressure from above and weak support from below

From the perspective of auxiliary indicator price levels, prices continued to decline this week, and position signals have fully weakened:

Short cycles (10-day, 20-day, 30-day, 60-day): Throughout this week, the prices have been at an absolute low, continuously breaking through the support levels within the cycles, with the upside pressure space fully opened.

Key conclusion: This week, prices have rapidly fallen from the “median” level into the “low end of the full-cycle range,” with both upward and downward price swings now entirely tilted toward the downside. Moreover, no positive factors have emerged to trigger a price rebound; as a result, the market can only passively follow the bearish trend downward.

III. Fundamental Three-Dimensional Decomposition: Demand is the Absolute Driver

1. Demand side: Downstream industries such as acrylate esters, SAP, and water reducers have insufficient terminal orders, maintaining low operating loads. They only maintain "sporadic purchasing based on demand" for acrylic acid, with no actions of centralized restocking or advance inventory preparation.

2. Cost End: The core raw material, propylene, only showed a slight and weak fluctuation this week, with the price decrease being much smaller than that of acrylic acid. From a cost structure perspective, the price of propylene did not experience a collapse, maintaining a bottom line, which allowed acrylic acid to only "gradually and slowly decline" this week, rather than experiencing a "crash-style plunge." As of May 19th, the benchmark price of propylene was 9,214.33 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.95% compared to the beginning of the month (9,494.33 CNY/ton).

3. Supply Side: This week, the operation of acrylic acid plants in China remained stable, with ample spot supply. Manufacturers' inventories did not show significant reduction, and their sales mentality leaned towards "following the market and promoting volume through discounts." In order to reduce inventory, they proactively lowered their quotations, further increasing the downward pressure on the market.

4. Future Market Forecast

Short-term trend: The current average deviation remains in a phase of widening negative values, and the downward momentum is still likely to persist. In the short term, the market is more prone to declines than rallies; initially, look for the emotional support level of 8,500 CNY/ton below.

Turning-point signal: For the market trend to stop falling, two key signals must be met simultaneously:

The average difference has shifted from widening negatively to narrowing negatively, indicating a slowdown in the decline and a weakening of the bearish momentum.

2. Low-level transactions increased in volume, with downstream sectors beginning to restock intensively, signaling a substantial recovery in demand.