Port coal price declines, centralized replenishment will not be repeated

With the release of new coal production capacity, the domestic coal supply capacity will continue to increase; in addition, the import coal restrictions have not yet been introduced, the import coal will continue to enter the domestic market smoothly, and the pressure of supply exceeding demand in the coal market will increase. After the national day, the transportation along the Daqin line returned to normal, the upstream shipment increased, and the downstream demand was not strong, which made the port coal price, which had been stuck for more than 20 days, could not be supported any more, showing a downward trend; so far, the port coal price has dropped to 570 CNY/ton. From last week's port transportation situation, it improved slightly; Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian port to port coal ships increased slightly, but mainly to transport long-term cooperative coal, the market coal sporadic purchase, is not enough to support the coal price to stabilize and stop falling immediately. Up to now, the coal storage of national key power plants has risen to 90.78 million tons, a new high since mid July; while the inventory of six coastal power plants has climbed to over 16.6 million tons again, to 16.26 million tons, and the available days for coal storage have remained at a high level of about 26 days. Customers in the South still mainly purchase Changxie coal, relying on a large number of imported coal, which has little enthusiasm for the coal transportation in the port market around the Bohai Sea; the supply and demand of the coastal coal market is relatively loose, and the coal price continues to decline to the lowest level since this year.

The quoted price of 5500 kcal thermal power coal is around 570 CNY/ton, the quoted price of 5000 kcal thermal power coal is around 500 CNY/ton, while the downstream intended receiving price is more than 3-5 CNY/ton. When the cold winter has not yet arrived, coastal power plants continue to be in a state of high inventory and low consumption, and the enthusiasm for procurement is not strong. The supply of coal in the main producing areas is accelerating, the vehicles entering the Datong Qinhuangdao line and the Monggol Hebei line remain at a high level, and the strict control policy of imported coal has not been issued yet, so the market bearish sentiment still exists. Next week, it is expected that the port coal price will continue to bear downward pressure, but for port transportation, there is good news, that is, the price of power coal is relatively low, which is close to the bottom of the valley, and some small and medium-sized customers in the downstream are expected to enter the stage of replenishment for coal storage and transportation in winter; the rising channel of demand has been opened, and it is expected that the number of coal ships arriving at the port next week will continue to increase. The large-scale cooling weather in the North has arrived. On November 15, the north will enter the heating season, and some areas will be heated in advance at the beginning of November. The coal consumption of power plants will increase, and the demand for electricity is expected to enter the recovery channel. At that time, the demand for inquiry goods in the port will increase, and the shipping intention of superimposed coal stations and traders will be strengthened, and the Bohai port will once again usher in the trend of double high supply and demand. It is expected that Qin Huangdao port coal storage is expected to reduce, market panic eased. In the last two months of this year, the supply of coastal coal market is relatively loose. When the imported coal and Changxie coal can meet the demand of coal consumption, the phenomenon of replenishment at any time after the inventory of power plant decreases slightly will occur; the rush transportation and centralized replenishment of coal in previous years will not reappear. Therefore, it is difficult for the demand side to increase substantially, and the port market coal price continues to keep below 600 CNY/ton.