When does the 'dual focus' market pressure run?

This week, the price of coal in producing area and port continued to show a weak trend. Coal prices have been falling in different ranges. From the perspective of main producing areas, according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the production of raw coal in the three major producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia reached 1.92 billion tons in the first three quarters, accounting for about 70% of the national production of raw coal, and the coal supply capacity has been continuously enhanced. After entering October, the power coal market has been affected by the downstream demand contraction, and the coal prices in the producing areas have been falling continuously. This week, the coal prices of some large mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province are lower. It dropped 15-30 CNY/ton, some coal types in Ordos area of Inner Mongolia also dropped 5-10 CNY/ton, and coal prices in northern Shanxi generally fell 10 CNY/ton. The power coal market in the production area is weakening obviously as a whole. This week, the supply and demand of power coal market in the northern port was loose, and coal prices continued to decline to the lowest level since this year. According to the guidance price of Fengkuang power coal, up to now, the quotation of 5500 kcal in the port is mostly focused on 568 CNY/ton, and the quotation of 5000 kcal is mostly focused on 500 CNY/ton. In terms of the downstream demand, the available days of the downstream terminal power plant inventory this week remained at a high level of more than 24 days, and the coal purchase of the power plant was mainly long-term cooperative coal, and the purchase of market coal was not active. In addition, due to the influx of imported coal, the port coal supply and demand pattern was relatively loose. The next coal price trend still needs to pay attention to the change of the heating situation in the north and the import coal policy.

Coke market: This week's coke price did not block the pressure of steel enterprises, falling by 50 CNY/ton. After the price fell, the market did not improve significantly. The downstream procurement was not very positive, and traders were also waiting. The stock of coke enterprises increased. As of the 25th, the price of Shanxi Linfen primary metallurgical coke was 1800 CNY/ton; Hebei Tangshan quasi primary metallurgical coke was 1860 CNY/ton; Rizhao Port quasi primary metallurgical coke was 1800 CNY/ton. Metallurgical coke 1820 CNY/ton. After the price drop, the market still hasn't improved significantly. The basic data shows that the supply exceeds the demand at present, and the information is not optimistic. In autumn and winter, environmental protection limits production. The industry is about to enter the off-season, and the inventory of coke enterprises is also accumulating. In terms of price, due to the firmness of upstream raw materials, it is difficult for coke price to fall again, but it is still possible. After all, the supply is too loose, and the downstream steel market is not good, so the coke market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term. The coking coal market is in weak and stable operation this week, and the sentiment of the coking coal market is generally low.

At present, the market is still in downward adjustment. The inventory of some mines is rising, the sales is not good, and the actual transaction price continues to fall, especially the low sulfur main coke, which is greatly affected by the impact of imported coal. The actual transaction price of Linfen and Luliang coal mines, the main producing areas of low sulfur main coke, continues to fall by 20-30 At present, the acceptance tax of low sulfur main coke clean coal (s0.7g85) in Lvliang is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton compared with the previous one; the actual transaction price of Linfen (s0.5g80-83) is 1460 CNY/ton, down 20-30 CNY/ton compared with the previous one. Compared with the low sulfur main coke, the impact of imported coal on other coal is very limited, and the price is relatively stable. The import coal market is also under pressure. Recently, due to the downward impact of domestic double coke and the impact of the stock accumulation of Ganqi Maodu port, the land price of Ganqi Maodu port of Mongolia No.5 raw coal has fallen again. At present, the actual transaction price of raw coal at the port has dropped to 910-920 CNY/ton, the actual transaction price of single clean coal is 1150-1160 CNY/ton, and the actual transaction price of non single clean coal is 1120-1130 CNY/ton; the actual transaction price of main coke at the first line of Jingtang Port in Australia has dropped to 1380 yuan./ Tons, a decrease of 30 CNY/ton, mainly due to the abundant resources available for sale in the port at present, the poor expectation of port traders on the later market, and the rush to sell goods. On the whole, it is in the period of limited production in heating season, which suppresses the demand for coking coal, and the downstream purchases more on demand, with low purchasing enthusiasm. The steel plant still has a new round of suppressing expectations for coking enterprises, while the subsequent customs clearance policies and quota policies supporting the expected tightening of imported coal in the domestic market still have uncertain factors, and the short-term coking coal market continues to bear pressure.