South Africa's energy will still depend on coal in the next decade

Gwede Mantashe, South Africa's energy minister, said recently that South Africa will continue to rely on renewable energy and coal-fired power generation over the next decade. On October 18, South Africa issued the long-awaited comprehensive resource plan, replacing the blueprint plan that had not been updated in the past decade, thus restraining the urgent demand for new generation capacity. Mantash said the new plan supports a diversified energy structure and could lead to rapid economic growth in South Africa. Last week, South Africa lost power for the first time in about seven months, raising concerns about power generation again, reflecting the challenges faced by South Africa's president, Cyril Ramaphosa, in revitalizing the South African economy and saving the struggling Eskom. On October 18, Eskom's online power generation capacity in the country was reduced by 2000 megawatts, said dikatso mothae, a spokesman for Eskom. The new energy plan will add 1500 megawatts of coal power, 2500 megawatts of hydropower, 6000 megawatts of photovoltaic power, 14400 megawatts of wind power and 3000 megawatts of natural gas power. At present, the power structure of South Africa is mainly coal-fired power generation, accounting for more than 80% of the power structure, so South Africa has also become the top 20 countries in global carbon dioxide emissions. The plan shows that by 2030, coal will account for 59% of South Africa's total power generation, 8% of hydropower, 6% of photovoltaic power generation, 18% of wind power generation, and 1% of natural gas and diesel power generation. According to mantash, Koeberg nuclear power plant in South Africa will extend its power generation life, but will not implement the large-scale expansion plan advocated by former President Jacob Zuma.

We should not be lobbying organizations for specific energy technologies. " Mantash said. Analysts said the plan does not represent the lowest cost generation structure, but aims to increase the proportion of each stakeholder in the planned generation structure. Chris Yelland, an energy expert, said the new coal capacity included in the new plan would also calm local coal lobbyists. However, yerander said that due to environmental concerns, international and local banks in South Africa are increasingly reluctant to provide loans for coal projects, so these plants will never be put into operation. On October 16, part of Eskom's generating units failed due to unscheduled failures, resulting in 1050mw of the total installed capacity of 45000mw. Despite improvements in the operation of these plants at the beginning of the year, failures indicate that South Africa's power system is still fragile. In addition, Eskom said its medupi units 3, 4 and 5 were offline on October 17 due to the handling of coal and coal ash, adding to the power shortage faced by South Africa. When medupi and kusile are completed, they will become the two largest coal-fired power plants in the world. However, these two power plants are in trouble due to huge cost and time limit exceeding. So far, Eskom has a debt of R 440 billion (US $29.7 billion), which is also the main reason why it relies on the South African government assistance. At present, the No. 4 unit of medupi power plant has been put back on line, partially alleviating the power outage on October 19, said mortay, a spokesman for Eskom. Thabang audat, a senior energy ministry official, said the South African government would soon discuss supply and demand options with power companies to help address the energy gap in South Africa. According to the assumptions in the energy plan, South Africa will purchase more renewable energy in the fifth round of bidding next year, he added. The blackout in February and March this year caused the economic growth of South Africa to shrink in the first quarter, and it is likely that South Africa will lose the opportunity of Moody's final investment credit rating.