The price of power coal falls sharply in the future

On October 31, the main 2001 contracts of power coal futures fell sharply, approaching the 540 CNY/ton threshold. On the one hand, domestic production and supply recovered; on the other hand, demand was weak. On October 28, the inventory of national key power plants reached a high of 94.46 million tons. At this time, the rumors of coal import restrictions have been revived. The author believes that the policy of coal import should be stable and the means of intervention should be used cautiously. Since this year, due to the coal mine disaster and coal management ticket restriction, the domestic coal supply is insufficient, and the coal price continues to be in the red range. From January to October, the price of 5500 kcal in the northern port averaged 601 CNY/ton, which is still significantly higher than the central 66 CNY/ton in the green range. However, the import coal policy remained relatively stable, which not only made up the domestic supply gap after the beginning of the year's coal mine disaster, but also stabilized the coal market, It also creates good conditions for the adjustment of domestic trade coal price to the Green Zone, and makes important contributions to the reform of coal-fired power plant price and the energy cost of the whole society.

At present, it is one of the important measures to supplement the coal supply gap in the heating season in Northeast China. Import coal is a beneficial supplement to domestic coal supply. Import coal can't replace the supplement to power plants in coastal areas of China. In recent years, the supply and demand of domestic coal market is tight, and the quantity of imported coal in China has remained over 270 million tons, which plays an irreplaceable role in dealing with the rain and snow freezing disaster at the beginning of 2018, major safety accidents of coal mines in 2019, etc. Imported coal, especially Indonesian coal, has the characteristics of low ash and low sulfur. It is a real high-quality environmental protection coal. It is very suitable for blending with Inner Mongolia coal with high ash and Shanxi coal with high sulfur. It plays a very good role in environmental protection emissions and economic benefits of power plants.

In addition, the design coal of many power plant boilers in the coastal area is imported coal, and only imported coal can be selected from the burning adaptability. The great price advantage is one of the main reasons for the year-on-year increase of imported coal. Since 2016, the domestic coal market has been in short supply. In 2017 and 2018, the domestic supply gap was 200 million tons and 100 million tons respectively, which led to the sharp rise of domestic coal price, which is in the high red range stipulated in the memorandum on curbing the abnormal fluctuation of coal market price issued by the national development and Reform Commission In operation (up to 770 CNY/ton at the highest), the price difference between imported coal and domestic coal is quite large. Since this year, the price advantage of imported coal is over 100 CNY/ton (up to 150 CNY/ton at the highest).

The huge economic benefits make the imported coal increase year-on-year, which is due to the economic law, and also objectively reflects the rich profits of domestic coal enterprises. In the fierce power market competition environment, the import of coal has become an important means to reduce the cost of fuel. The stability of coal import policy is the key to the stability of coal price and the return to the Green Zone The price of coal for export only rose from 590 CNY/ton to 635 CNY/ton, without any significant fluctuation as before. Under the background of stable import coal policy, domestic trade coal prices continue to fluctuate in a narrow range and move closer to the green range, especially in the whole September, the closing price of power coal in the northern port fluctuated in a narrow range from 580 CNY/ton to 587 CNY/ton, setting a historical record of the lowest monthly price fluctuation of power coal.

In October, the price of power coal entered the green range for the second time in more than three years under the influence of many factors such as stable import coal policy and high storage of power plants. In the middle of April 2018, it briefly entered once, but it immediately resumed high-level operation under the condition of tightening the coal import policy. The lessons from the past are still there, and the coal import policy needs to remain stable. Since 2016, the production capacity of backward coal mines in Northeast China has been gradually withdrawn and the coal production has been greatly reduced. However, at the same time, the release of high-quality production capacity is insufficient. In addition, the demand for revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China is increasing, and the demand for ultra-high voltage power transmission is increasing. The demand for coal in Northeast China is greatly increasing, and the contradiction between supply and demand is beginning to appear. There is a large gap in coal supply during the "peak winter" every year. This year, the gap of coal in Northeast China is more than 30 million tons.

Imported coal has become a key point of supplementary supply in Northeast China Should be one of the effective means. On the one hand, the stability of domestic coal market depends on the increase of domestic coal production, on the other hand, it depends on the supplement of imported coal. At present, the domestic coal supply-demand relationship has improved, but it is still fragile. Maintaining the stability of coal import policy has a profound impact on the market. The regulation and control of imported coal should rely on market means. Imported coal is not a "demon", but the result of market selection. Only when the domestic supply can truly meet the demand for coal consumption, and the price falls back to a reasonable range, the quantity of imported coal will be correspondingly reduced. At the same time, a reasonable price will also reduce the energy cost of the whole society, improve the serious imbalance between the operation of coal and power, and ease the coal-fired power generation enterprises The dilemma of business operation plays an important role in ensuring the safety of power generation and heating in the whole society.