August 17 news
Today, the gasoline price is in a volatile pattern, with the average difference indicator showing a weak rebound and a bearish signal. The short-term price is in a high range with limited room for increase. Considering the international crude oil trend and the impact of China's price adjustment, attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as geopolitical situations.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-16) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-15) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -22.57 | -35.72 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 40.73 | 63.62 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 47.69 | 51.95 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current deviation change direction combination is (+, -, -), which belongs to a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating, reason: the directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent. The 5-day average difference has increased compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences have decreased compared to yesterday, meeting the criteria for an oscillating market. Additionally, the signals indicate a weak rebound with a bearish bias.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price cycle position: High, with limited upside potential.
Price position for the 3-month cycle: High, with limited room for further increase.
1 year cycle price position: median, with some room for overall fluctuation.
Overall, short-term gasoline prices in China are at a high level, with limited room for further increases, and the medium-level indication suggests that there may still be fluctuations in the medium term.
5. Trend Chart Display
VI. Supplementary Market Background
China adjusted prices: At 24:00 on August 14, the retail price caps for gasoline and diesel were lowered, with decreases of 230 and 220 CNY per ton, respectively. This translates to a decrease of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline and 0.19 yuan per liter for 95# gasoline.
International crude oil: Recently, international crude oil prices have been volatile. On August 13, WTI crude oil closed down 2.4% at $81.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed down 2.2% at $87.07 per barrel. Previously, from August 10 to 12, international crude oil prices had risen consecutively.
On the supply and demand side: OPEC has lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, in July, OPEC+ crude oil production increased by approximately 1.42 million barrels per day compared to June. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983.
Overseas Markets: U.S. gasoline prices have reached a new high for the same period in previous years, with the average price reaching $4 per gallon in the second week of August. Uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran is keeping prices elevated.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
