Power coal: no sign of recovery?

The power coal market continued to decline. At the end of the year, the upstream production and supply increased, but the downstream demand still shrank. The overall supply exceeded the demand. The market expectation was pessimistic, and the linkage decline occurred from the origin to the port to the terminal price. In the process of weak market operation, the activity of intermediate trade circulation has declined, and even in the peak season, there is no intention to take delivery of goods and bet on the market. Relevant analysts pointed out that under the condition of low coal consumption, excessive imported coal and increased supply, both national key power plants and coastal power plants are in the state of passive storage. High inventory covers the first and middle of November. Up to now, there is no sign that coal prices have stabilized and stopped falling. However, the market is pessimistic. It is expected that with the gradual decline of domestic coal price, the price advantage will be gradually reflected. With the development of winter coal storage market, the price of coal is expected to stop falling. However, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation of terminal purchase and replenishment and coal consumption. In terms of the latest market, port inquiries have increased, and most of the new inquiries are for high-quality and low calorific value coal. The inventory of some coal types in the northern port has declined. Although the price reduction in the downstream is low, the acceptance of the low price by the upstream suppliers is not high. Based on the expectation that some traders hold a strong price sentiment, the market mentality is different, and the wait-and-see increase.

On November 4, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 555 CNY/ton, 3 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous period, 32 CNY/ton or 5.4% lower than the price in the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 485 CNY/ton, 3 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous period, 32 CNY/ton or 6.2% lower than the price in the same period last month. In terms of imported coal, affected by the downward trend of domestic market and uncertain factors such as measures for imported coal, the market wait-and-see increases, demand slows down, and the price goes down. In terms of the downstream, under the condition of low coal consumption and incremental supply, the inventory of coastal and inland power plants has been increased passively in the near future. The inventory of key power plants has reached more than 94 million tons. According to the current replenishment rate, it is estimated that it will soon reach a historical high of 100 million tons. Although gradually entering the peak period of winter coal consumption, demand is not expected to improve significantly in this supply and inventory state. In terms of key power plants, the coal consumption load of power plants is still at a low level, but the inventory has climbed to the highest level of the year. As of October 28, the inventory of key power plants in China was 94.46 million tons, 3.68 million tons higher than that of October 20, 4.2 million tons of coal was supplied on that day, 3.2 million tons of coal was consumed on that day, and 28 days of coal storage were available. As of November 5, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.670 million tons, with an increase of 297000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 374000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 556000 tons, with a decrease of 23000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year increase of 7.8 tons; the available days were 30.0 days, with an increase of 1.7 days in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7 days. The analysis of China's coal resource network points out that, on the whole, at present, the supply and demand of power coal market is unbalanced, and the coal price is still in a downward channel. Entering the peak period of winter coal consumption in the later stage may support the market, but most market participants are not optimistic about the market in the whole fourth quarter. They think that even if the support is only a short-term stable or small rise for the coal price, the general trend will fall. In terms of producing area, pithead coal market is in a weak position. The price of some coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province fell by 5-10 yuan again. There are fewer coal trucks in the coal mines, and some of the coal mines are on the top of the inventory. The expectation for the future market is pessimistic. The Ordos market in Inner Mongolia continues to be weak, with poor delivery of foamed coal and good sales of lump coal. Some coal mines set production by sales, and take a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. The downward pressure of coal market in northern Shanxi is relatively large. The coal mine indicates that the terminal demand is reduced, the port shipment is reversed, and the coal mine shipment is difficult.