From February to April 2026, China's exports of high-purity tungsten powder to Japan remained at zero for three consecutive months.
High-purity tungsten powder is the core raw material for producing tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆), accounting for 60%–70% of production costs. Two Japanese companies—Kanto Denka Kogyo and Central Glass—together hold approximately one-quarter of the global tungsten hexafluoride market, and they rely almost entirely on imports from China for their raw materials. Japan has no domestic tungsten mines and no high-purity tungsten smelting capacity.
Amid the raw material supply cutoff, both companies have issued multiple supply disruption alerts to their customers. At its financial results briefing on June 8, Kanto Denka stated that it can still procure raw materials and, with additional channels such as recycled products, will not face production halts. However, the market is clearly less optimistic.
Rumors that the two companies would "permanently cease production starting July 1" have circulated widely in the market, but these have been confirmed as misinterpretations. Nevertheless, the real supply pressure is enough to keep the global semiconductor supply chain on edge.
Prices skyrocket as global production capacity remains highly concentrated
This concern is directly reflected in prices. As of June 24, domestic ex-factory prices for 5N-grade tungsten hexafluoride stood at 1,710–1,810 yuan/kg, with mainstream pricing at 1,760 yuan/kg—up about 236% year-on-year. Prices for 6N-grade products ranged from 2.2 million to 3.0 million yuan/ton, an increase of over 190% since early April.
Export prices have also risen sharply. According to General Administration of Customs data, the average export price of tungsten hexafluoride in April 2026 reached $149.79/kg, up 203.83% year-on-year.
Global total production capacity for tungsten hexafluoride is only 8,500–9,000 tons per year, with more than 90% concentrated among a handful of top producers. The two Japanese companies together have approximately 2,000 tons/year of capacity. Should their supply be disrupted, the market has almost no spare capacity to fill the gap.
Industry estimates suggest the global supply shortfall for the second half of 2026 could reach 2,000 tons. New capacity construction and customer certification typically take 18–24 months, meaning the global market will remain under pressure until at least 2027.
Expectations for domestic substitution rise, but implementation will take time
With Japanese supply obstructed and domestic wafer fabs increasingly focused on supply chain security, local specialty gas manufacturers are gaining a window for qualification. Companies such as Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and CSEG have achieved technological breakthroughs in products like nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃) and tungsten hexafluoride, with some products already entering the supply chains of leading wafer fabs. On July 1, the industrial specialty gas sector rallied broadly, with Jinhong Gas and Shudao Equipment both hitting the 20% daily limit and Haohua Chemical Science & Technology also hitting the 10% limit.
However, based on public disclosures, actual orders have not yet materialized on a large scale. CSEG and Zhongjuxin both stated that they have not signed any new long-term or large-volume substantive order agreements. The supply crisis has created an "entry" opportunity for domestic manufacturers, but converting that opportunity into orders will take time.
In parallel, domestic substitution for electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid is also advancing. Do-Fluoride New Materials' self-developed semiconductor-grade hydrofluoric acid (G5 grade) has achieved stable volume supply to leading wafer fabs including TSMC, Samsung, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and CXMT.
China's export controls on tungsten products have not led to the dramatic scenario of "permanent production halts," but the existential pressure on Japan's tungsten hexafluoride industry is real. This supply chain shock triggered by export restrictions is opening a window of opportunity for domestic electronic specialty gas companies—and the speed of their technology validation and capacity ramp-up will determine just how much of that opportunity can be realized.
