March DOP Market in China Experiences Sharp Fluctuations and Rises

March 23rd, news:

In March 2026, the Chinese DOP market exhibited a volatile trend characterized by "sharp rise—surge and retreat—stabilization and rebound." The overall price increase was significant, primarily driven by strong cost pressures, combined with the influence of supply and demand dynamics and external factors. The market fluctuations exceeded expectations, and the industry showed a unique situation where prices surged but transaction volumes diverged.

March DOP Plasticizer's Wild "Roller Coaster" Market in China

According to the commodity market analysis system, driven by the spillover effects of the sharp surge in crude oil prices triggered by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the prices of DOP’s core raw materials—iso-octanol and phthalic anhydride—have soared dramatically, pushing DOP prices sharply higher. In March, DOP prices rose steadily from 7,701 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month to 9,875.83 CNY per ton as of March 23, representing a cumulative price increase of 28.24% for the entire month. In mid-March, following the International Energy Agency’s release of strategic petroleum reserves, some raw material prices experienced a slight pullback, causing DOP prices to retreat from their earlier highs. After reaching a temporary peak of 9,901 CNY per ton on March 10, DOP prices began to decline and subsequently entered a period of volatile adjustment. In the latter half of the month, DOP prices stabilized and started to rebound again, as raw material prices remained firm once more and some manufacturers proactively maintained their pricing. Overall, DOP prices in March followed a pattern of “initial sharp rise, followed by a pullback, and then stabilization.”

Cost Side: Driven by Crude Oil Pass-Through, Soaring Raw Material Prices Become the Core Driver

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in international crude oil prices. The disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has caused a global oil supply shortage. As the origin of the chemical industry chain, the fluctuation in crude oil prices is transmitted through the industrial chain to the raw material end of DOP, pushing the prices of 2-ethylhexanol and phthalic anhydride to surge significantly. This forms a transmission chain of "crude oil price increase—raw materials 2-ethylhexanol and phthalic anhydride price increase—DOP price increase."

Raw material 2-ethylhexanol market conditions in China

According to the commodity market analysis system, the price at the beginning of March was 6,666.67 CNY/ton and rose to 9,500 CNY/ton on March 10th, with a price increase of 42.50%. Although there was a subsequent adjustment, by March 13th, it still remained at 8,333.33 CNY/ton, an increase of 25% from the beginning of the month. The core reason is the rise in crude oil prices, which led to a sharp increase in the price of propylene, a key raw material for the production of iso-octanol. At the same time, iso-octanol production facilities in China maintained high operating rates, but the cost increase far exceeded the increase in factory prices, leading to some companies experiencing cost inversion.

Phthalic Anhydride Market Situation in China

According to the commodity market analysis system, the phthalic anhydride market in March showed a frenzied performance. The price of o-xylene-based phthalic anhydride increased from 6,150 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 10,500 CNY/ton on March 10th, with a price increase of up to 60%. As of March 13th, it remained at 8,316.67 CNY/ton, an increase of 35.24% from the beginning of the month. This was mainly due to the impact of crude oil transmission and the sharp rise in the price of raw material o-xylene. At the same time, the operating rate of some phthalic anhydride enterprises in China was maintained at around 64%, leading to relatively tight supply, which further supported the price increase.

Supply and Demand: Both supply and demand have increased, but the structure is imbalanced, with limited support from rigid demand in China.

From the supply side, in March, the operating rate of DOP enterprises in China gradually increased, rising from a low level at the beginning of the month to around 65%-66%. Some factories that were previously shut down have gradually resumed production, and the market supply has shown a slow growth trend. However, some factories are still in a long-term shutdown state, so the overall oversupply pressure has not increased. Moreover, manufacturers have a strong desire to maintain high prices, which further supports the high price levels. In terms of inventory, the market inventory at the beginning of the month was at a moderate level. As DOP prices rose, factory inventories did not show significant accumulation, and the spot supply remained relatively tight, providing some support for the increase in DOP prices.

From the demand side, the operating rate of the downstream core industry, the PVC industry, remains around 80%, but orders for terminal products are poor. The PVC market is characterized by "high operating rates, high inventory, and weak demand," leading to a situation where the procurement demand for DOP is mainly driven by rigid demand, with few large orders. Additionally, the demand from downstream industries such as cable materials and artificial leather is lackluster, making it difficult to effectively drive up DOP prices. This results in a market dynamic that is primarily cost-driven, with supply and demand playing a secondary role. Price increases have not been accompanied by increased transaction volumes; instead, there is a peculiar phenomenon of "reluctance to sell at higher prices and waiting for transactions." Traders are hesitant to quote prices due to rapid fluctuations in raw material costs, while downstream enterprises are unwilling to stockpile due to significant price increases, opting instead to maintain rigid demand procurement. This has led to very few transactions in the market.

Future Market Expectations

In March, the DOP market showed distinct phased changes: In the first half of the month, driven by a sharp surge in crude oil prices and skyrocketing raw material costs, market sentiment was heavily influenced by panic-driven price hikes. Sellers became reluctant to sell, holding onto their inventories, while downstream enterprises passively followed suit with purchases, pushing prices to rise rapidly. In the middle of the month, as raw material prices began to ease and reached their peak levels, market sentiment turned more cautious, with sellers adopting a more restrained pricing approach. Downstream enterprises temporarily halted bulk purchases, limiting themselves to replenishing only essential supplies, resulting in a slight drop in prices. By the latter half of the month, raw material prices once again remained firm, and manufacturers’ willingness to hold prices increased. Market confidence gradually recovered, and prices stabilized and rebounded. However, wait-and-see sentiment had not completely dissipated, and transactions continued to be dominated by essential demand, with no signs yet of large-scale stockpiling.

For the future market, plasticizer product data analysts believe that in the short term, the DOP market will maintain a high-level fluctuation with a strong trend. The core support comes from the continuous firmness of the cost end —— the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have not yet eased, and international crude oil prices are still expected to rise. The prices of 2-ethylhexanol and phthalic anhydride are likely to remain at high levels, providing strong cost support for DOP. At the same time, manufacturers have a strong desire to maintain high prices, and the supply of spot goods is relatively tight. Downstream demand is steadily following, and there is limited room for a significant price drop.

In the long term, market trends will largely depend on three key factors: costs, supply, and demand. The cost factor is primarily influenced by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. If the situation continues to escalate, crude oil and raw material prices will keep rising, pushing the center of gravity for DOP prices higher. Conversely, if the situation eases and crude oil prices fall, DOP prices may experience a pullback. As for the demand factor, it hinges on the pace of recovery in downstream industries. If inventories in downstream sectors such as PVC are digested more rapidly and end-user orders improve, this will provide support for DOP demand and help drive price increases. On the other hand, if demand recovery falls short of expectations, it will limit the room for price increases. Regarding the supply factor, the key determinant is the operating rate of enterprises. If DOP plants that had previously suspended production resume operations, the market supply will increase significantly, potentially reversing the supply-demand balance and triggering a price correction.

Overall, it is difficult for the supply and demand of DOP to change fundamentally in the future. The main driving force for DOP market changes remains on the cost side. It is expected that from late March to early April, the DOP market will continue to maintain a high-level fluctuation, with the price range likely to be between 10,000-11,000 CNY/ton. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the trends of crude oil and raw materials, and be cautious of the risk of price adjustments. For downstream enterprises, it is recommended to maintain rigid demand procurement and not to blindly stockpile. For traders and producers, it is suggested to closely follow market dynamics, reasonably control inventory, and avoid the risks brought by price fluctuations.