The export proportion of cosmetics and other consumer goods should be increased

Recently, South Korea has proposed to improve the export of cosmetics, automobiles and other consumer goods compared with intermediate materials. Due to the trade disputes between China and the United States, the export of South Korea has been affected, so it is proposed to make up for the loss by increasing the export of consumer goods. The International Trade Research Institute of Korea Trade Association recently released the report "analysis of the market potential of world consumer goods and the current situation of China's export competitiveness", which said that "in order to disperse the export risks brought by economic fluctuation, the export of consumer goods should be expanded." According to the analysis of Institute of international trade, the export of consumer goods is relatively stable due to their better economic defensive performance, but the proportion of China's consumer goods export is not only reduced, but also the amount of consumer goods has been reduced for four consecutive years since 2014. Just as the trade dispute between the United States and China weakens the global value chain (GVC) connecting South Korea, China and the United States, which has a negative impact on China's exports, South Korea, with a high proportion of intermediate materials exports, will inevitably be hit in the trade disputes among the three countries.

In particular, intermediate materials are not only sensitive to changes in the global economy, but also have a continuous impact on changes in the demand for final materials in processing procedures. According to the prediction of the Research Institute, the middle class population centered in the Asia Pacific region will grow rapidly. Therefore, the importance of consumer goods exports to emerging countries is increasing. According to the statistics of the trade association, the growth of global total imports of consumer goods is not obvious, but the annual average growth rate of imports of each country is 5.9% in China, 7.2% in ASEAN and 9.6% in Central Europe. The demand for consumer goods of major emerging countries is growing rapidly. The annual growth rate of India itself is not high, but since 2000, the proportion of India in the world's export market has been growing continuously. It is reported that South Korea's exports to China have been severely hit by the sluggish U.S. market, the largest consumer goods market, and the Sade problem in 2017, and the export of consumer goods has been in a downward trend for four consecutive years.

From the perspective of various product types, in 2018, the automobile export accounted for 59.4% of the export of consumer goods, with the expansion of overseas production, an average decrease of 2.9% in the past three years, driving the downward trend of the whole export of consumer goods. China's consumer goods market is the fastest growing market in the world, which is characterized by the transfer of production base to China and high-end demand. According to the analysis of the Research Institute, Korean cosmetics once ranked first in the Chinese market, but the rest of the products were overtaken by developed countries led by Europe and ASEAN, with the market share in China falling from more than 5% in the 2000s to 3.1% in 2018. "South Korea's exports have been hit hard because of trade disputes between the United States and China," said a person at the Institute of international trade. Therefore, we should increase the export of consumer goods to make up for this loss. We should focus on high-end consumer goods to expand the market, with China, ASEAN, India, Central Europe and other emerging countries with sustained growth in consumer goods import. "