Shipment Pressure Eases Locally; PC Prices Show Mixed Trends in Early November

November 11, News

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, in early November, the Chinese PC market mainly experienced fluctuating conditions. The spot prices of most grades showed a mix of increases and decreases. As of November 11, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 14,033.33 CNY/ton, with a price change rate of -0.94% compared to early November.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: In late October, China's PC polymerization enterprises underwent concentrated maintenance. Since November, there has been a trend of both restarts and continued maintenance. The restart of Lihuayi Weiyuan is imminent, while Zhejiang Petrochemical has scheduled maintenance for multiple production lines. As a result, the industry's operating rate has decreased by 4% to 74%, with weekly production averaging around 62,000 tons, a decrease from the beginning of the month. Inventory levels have dropped to a low position after previous digestion, alleviating the pressure on factory sales and production, and improving the ample supply situation of PC. Overall, the supply side of PC has strengthened its support for the market.

Raw Materials Perspective: As shown in the chart above, the BPA market continued its downward trend in November. Upstream phenol and acetone prices remain relatively low, offering little support to the BPA market. Additionally, weak demand from the BPA consumer end has further pressured spot prices, causing them to decline rapidly. Although market sentiment in China remains subdued, the sharp drop in spot prices to historically low levels, combined with relatively manageable inventory levels, has prompted companies and traders to adopt more cautious pricing strategies, helping to stabilize the market at lower levels. Looking ahead, BPA prices are expected to stabilize, though their ability to provide meaningful support for PC costs is likely to remain limited.

Demand Side: Downstream factory load positions remain less than ideal, with traders continuing to adopt a strategy of buying on dips amid weak, rigid demand. While maintenance activities have temporarily boosted prices for certain grades, overall market trading activity has shown only limited improvement. Meanwhile, external market news continues to disrupt export channels, putting further downward pressure on shipments of PC end-products overseas. Throughout the period, traders have largely operated in line with prevailing market conditions, adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach. As early restocking demands have been largely met, market sentiment has returned to a more subdued state, and the pace of goods circulation has once again slowed down. Overall, demand remains tepid, providing only modest support for PC spot prices.

Future Market Prediction

In early November, the Chinese PC market operated with a narrow fluctuation. The upstream bisphenol A market was weak at a low level, and the cost support for PC did not improve. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants continued to decrease, but there is an expectation of a rebound in the short term. Market transactions have returned to weakness, with a balance between bullish and bearish forces. It is expected that the PC market may continue to consolidate in the short term.