Port coal price supported by year-end demand recovery

At the end of the year, the situation of coal transportation in coastal areas recovered. As soon as the downturn in the previous stage was changed, the number of coal transportation in the lower reaches began to increase. In the coming December, despite the high inventory of power plants, affected by the previous stage, some small and medium-sized power plants' passive hauling and other factors, the coal storage has declined, the enthusiasm of hauling will increase, the coal market will tend to improve, and the number of ships Hauling Coal to the port will increase; the port transportation is busy, and the coal price is supported. Civil electric load increases in cold winter. In the cold winter months, the civil power load is increased and the coal consumption of power plant is increased; in addition, the hydropower operation is weakened and the pressure of thermal power is increased, which drives the coal market to be better. It is expected that by the end of this month, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants will rise to 650000 tons. In December, the daily consumption will rise to 650000-700000 tons. The demand will pick up, and the pulling capacity of coal will keep increasing. In the case of insufficient use of Changxie coal, the number of customers pulling market coal will increase, supporting a small rebound in coal prices. Import of coal is limited and domestic market turns better.

Notice of Jiangsu power plant, Jiangyin, Zhenjiang, Zhangjiagang and other places stop berthing imported coal; due to the shortage of site, it is more difficult for Jingtang Port to clear and unload the imported coal; from the 13th, Shantou customs in Guangdong suspended customs declaration in other places, and only local integrated customs declaration is allowed in the future. In addition to the previous suspension of customs clearance, it can be determined that Jiangsu, Hainan, Guangxi, Fuzhou and some ports in the northeast can not be cleared. This year, the imported coal strongly impacted the domestic market, resulting in the pressure of supply exceeding demand in the domestic coal market. In the second half of the year, from July to October, the imported coal reached 121.79 million tons, with an average monthly import of 30.44 million tons. Many coastal power plants have purchased low-cost imported coal, reducing the number of haulage to Bohai port. After the import of coal is limited, it is expected that the domestic coal market will be optimistic and the coal transportation situation in the Bohai Sea port will be better. Industrial production has entered the sprint stage. This year, the domestic market demand is good, and the amount of coal transferred into the south by sea keeps increasing.

At the end of the year, the industrial production in the southern coastal areas has entered the sprint stage, and all industries have been fully developed to speed up production; in addition, the economic situation has improved, and the power consumption of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry has increased, driving the industrial power load up. The production and transportation of coal mines in the upper reaches are accelerated, and the railway and port are accelerated, and the power plant is actively transported. The coastal coal market is facing three high trends of supply, transportation and demand. The market tends to be better in the last month. Since this year, due to the increase of clean energy and the increase of UHV power transmission, Zhejiang and other places have taken "double control measures" to reduce the pressure of thermal power in coastal areas; in addition, due to the tightening of external environment, high energy consuming enterprises have not started work enough and the demand for coal has declined. In addition, the impact of imported coal on the coastal market has increased the pressure of oversupply in the domestic market. Although in the last month of this year, coal production and transportation need all parties to make efforts actively, and the coal throughput of Bohai Rim port will achieve a strong rebound, but it is difficult to reverse the passive situation of throughput deficit from January to November of this year. It is expected that the coal throughput of Bohai rim port in China will still be lower than that of last year.