PTA does not have the condition of continuous rise

Since November 12, futures prices of PTA in Zhengshang exchange have continued to rebound. As for positions, by the end of December 5, the total trading volume of PTA futures in January and may was 1857922, up 558724 from the rebound on November 12, up 43.01%; the total positions in January and may were 2063576, down 103798, down 4.79%; the capital stock was 4963.25 million yuan, down 12891, down 2.53%; the turnover rate was 0.90, down 2.53% from November 12 Up 0.30, up 50.20%. On the whole, although PTA prices have risen, positions and capital stocks have declined, indicating that the rise is largely caused by short covering. As for the position distribution, as of December 5, the top 20 positions of PTA futures were 606625, up 8013 from November 12, up 1.34%; the top 20 positions of PTA futures were 740278, down 12937 from November 12, down 1.72%; the net position was 133653, down 20950 from November 12, down 13.55%. On the whole, with the rebound of PTA price in this round, the advantage of PTA short position has weakened, but the overall advantage is still dominant. In terms of warehouse receipts, as of December 5, PTA futures had 11293 registered warehouse receipts, down 9215 from November 12. In late November, PTA Futures Basis expanded positively, futures trend was weak, and some short positions actively closed futures sales spot. At present, the futures price is strong, and the spot price is rising, and the short-term warehouse receipt volume has limited effect on PTA price suppression. But once the positive market is maintained, it may cause the increase of spot selling pressure. To sum up, PTA price rebounded, but the position fell, the main short position was still dominant, PTA warehouse receipts declined but there was an upward expectation. In this case, PTA will continue to rebound, but at present, from the perspective of volume analysis, it does not have the conditions to continue to rise.