From developing coal industry to developing coal economy

In the future, it is difficult to gain benefits by relying on large-scale expansion of production capacity. All regions and enterprises may turn the development of coal industry that they have been calling for many years into the development of coal economy. Facing the new demands of the new era, China's coal and carbon market has maintained a steady development trend, and the coal consumption market is still a huge base Weak growth market. But China's coal industry is in trouble. First, the development mode of high-quality coal is not clear. The coal industry has reached a consensus that it can no longer continue the original scale benefit development mode, but the way to achieve high-quality development is still in exploration. Second, the task of coal supply side structural reform has not been completed. For example, the closure of aging mines does not mean the withdrawal of inefficient assets, and the problems of personnel placement, debt disposal and mine development have not yet been solved; coal enterprise groups still rely heavily on coal business and coal industry chain extension business. Third, the level of coal governance needs to be improved. Market management is dominated by prohibition, and it is considered that it is the most convenient not to burn coal or loose coal. According to the deployment of the central economic work conference, China's coal industry will have a good side in 2020, but it will also face a very large transformation pressure to achieve rapid and high-quality development.

In order to stabilize the economy in 2020, we should ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range. In the given key work, reducing the cost of social financing, orderly promoting the disposal of zombie enterprises, and accelerating the reform of state-owned enterprises with state-owned assets are conducive to the reform of the coal industry. In addition, the first phase of economic and trade agreement reached between China and the United States is also conducive to stabilizing demand in energy markets such as coal. However, the central economic working conference also referred to China's "great downward pressure on the economy" and repeatedly pointed out the need to promote high-quality development. This also means that in 2020, the central government will not issue a flood irrigation stimulus policy. The meeting didn't mention the issue of infrastructure construction, but reiterated that we need to win three major battles, one of which is to fight well against pollution. The release of favorable factors requires reform and innovation. The impetus of reform and innovation depends on the external pressure of transformation and development. The external pressure of coal economic development mainly comes from three aspects. First, in 2020, China's economic development will face a complex internal and external environment. The central economic working conference mentioned that "the characteristics of the accelerated evolution of the great changes in the world are more obvious". As the economic growth rate changes from medium high speed to medium low speed, the demand of coal and other bulk means of production market will also weaken.

Secondly, in the context of the development of digital economy, a new era of global energy reform has been opened, which will have a direct impact on the demand of coal power market, which accounts for the largest part of the coal market. The rapid development of new energy technology relies on digital technology, which mainly refers to solar power generation, wind power generation, hydrogen, lithium and other energy storage technologies. New energy is no longer limited by resource endowment. It has the advantage of producing consumers and can be used in a distributed way, so that the scattered consumers can become energy producers at the same time. Third, new coal production capacity will soon enter a new round of centralized release period. Because the coal price is in the middle and upper reaches, it has driven the coal fixed asset investment which was stagnant. In the first 10 months of this year, the fixed asset investment in China's coal mining and dressing industry increased by 26.9% year on year. The new production capacity has the characteristics of larger scale and more advanced technology, which will also make the coal supply capacity stronger. New investment capacity will be released in 2020. Based on the above three external factors, the transformation and development pressure of coal enterprises in 2020 will increase unabated. At present, the coal price can still be maintained at a relatively high level. Coal enterprises should seize the favorable period of the market and accelerate the transformation to high-quality development through reform and innovation. The central economic working conference has made clear the determination of reform and innovation in 2020, which will create a better institutional environment for the transformation of the coal industry. According to the work plan of the central economic work conference, "unswervingly implement the new development concept" is the first of all key work, which points out the direction for the rapid realization of high-quality development of China's coal industry.

The key to steady development is to do a good job in economic development. China's coal market has a large scale, but it is difficult to obtain benefits from large-scale capacity expansion in the future. It's the best way to increase efficiency with less or even no scale. All localities and enterprises may wish to transform the development of coal industry that they have called for many years into the development of coal economy, face the new demands of the new era, adhere to differentiated development, lean development and digital development, and focus on innovating the high-quality development mode of coal economy, practically promoting the structural reform of multi field coal supply side, improving the supervision mode of coal safety production, and improving Four aspects of the government's coal governance level are to start a new situation of China's coal economy in an innovative period. No matter the government of the main coal producing areas or the coal enterprises, they should make up their minds to reform and innovate actively. Innovation is not only technological innovation, but also simultaneous exploration of new models of economic development after the transformation of new technological achievements. Otherwise, the application of new technology is likely to be insufficient, and it is difficult to support the coal industry to achieve high-quality development.