Consumption growth picked up to 8% in November, a five-month high

According to data released by the National Bureau of statistics on Monday, from January to November, fixed asset investment across the country increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate unchanged from the previous 10 months. In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.0% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of last month, a five-month high; the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year, and the growth picked up by 1.5 percentage points. According to the median forecast of seven institutions interviewed by the interface news, the growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to November was 5.2%, the total retail sales of consumer goods in November increased by 7.6%, and the industrial added value increased by 5.1%. In terms of investment, infrastructure investment continued to decline slightly. From January to November, infrastructure investment increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous 10 months. However, analysts expect infrastructure investment to pick up as policy forces.

In June, the State Council issued the notice on doing well in the issuance of special bonds of local governments and project supporting financing, proposing to allow special bonds to be used as capital funds of major projects that meet the requirements. At the executive meeting of the State Council in November, it was proposed to reduce the minimum capital ratio of some infrastructure projects. At the same time, infrastructure fields and other industry projects encouraged by other countries can raise capital through the issuance of equity type and equity type financial instruments. In addition, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 6 proposed to speed up infrastructure construction. The central economic working conference held last week put forward specific plans for infrastructure construction, such as strengthening the construction of strategic and network-based infrastructure, promoting the construction of Sichuan Tibet railway and other major projects, steadily promoting the construction of communication network, strengthening the construction of municipal pipe network, urban parking lot, cold chain logistics, and accelerating the construction of rural roads, information, water conservancy and other facilities. Yang yewei, chief Macro Analyst of Southwest Securities, told the interface news that from the official signals, infrastructure investment is still an important "grab" to stabilize the economy in the face of more complex domestic and foreign situations.

The measures recently issued by the government to expand the use of special bonds as capital and reduce the capital ratio of infrastructure projects can help infrastructure investment to some extent, and the growth rate of infrastructure construction is expected to rise to 7% - 10% next year. In other investment, from January to November, real estate development investment still maintained a double-digit growth, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage point compared with the previous 10 months. Ping An Securities pointed out that the average weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in November rebounded compared with that in October, and the logic of "price for volume" of real estate still supported real estate sales and real estate capital sources. The growth rate of manufacturing investment is still low and consolidated. From January to November, manufacturing investment increased by 2.5% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous 10 months. At present, there is still downward pressure on China's manufacturing industry. On the one hand, PPI remains low, corporate profits have not improved, and manufacturing enterprises have not strong momentum to expand reproduction, Soochow Securities said in the research report. On the other hand, although the trade frictions have eased, the weak situation of foreign demand has not changed, and the industry with high correlation with foreign demand has insufficient power to recover. In terms of consumption, this year's online double 11 sales increased by more than 30% compared with the same period last year, providing support for consumption in November. In addition, automobile consumption, which had previously been a drag on consumption growth, shows signs of improvement in the near future.

According to the latest production and sales data released by China Automobile Industry Association, China's automobile sales in November fell 3.6% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points lower than last month, and the decline narrowed for three consecutive months. According to the Research Report of the financial research center of the Bank of communications, under the low base and consumption promotion policies, the automobile demand may resume growth in 2020, and the effect on consumption will change from negative to positive. Next year, the overall consumption will maintain a stable situation, with the growth rate significantly faster than that of investment and export. In terms of industrial added value, industrial production in November was 1.5 percentage points faster than that in the previous month, of which manufacturing industry grew by 6.3%, 1.7 percentage points faster than that in the previous month. In terms of industries, 33 of the 41 major industries grew faster than last month, accounting for about 80% of all industries. Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that with the upgrading of the industry and the upgrading of the consumption of residents, the growth momentum of some new products is very strong. For example, in November, the output of smart watches and 3D printing devices more than doubled. There are also energy-saving and environmental protection related products, such as charging piles, whose output increased by more than 40% in the current month.