August 11th, news:
On August 10, the natural rubber market remained largely stable with minor fluctuations. Traders adjusted their quoted prices slightly, and Shanghai rubber futures prices showed modest consolidation. The mean-reversion indicator suggests that the market is currently in a volatile state following a deep correction. Over a one-year time frame, prices are at mid-to-high levels, with limited room for further increases. Coupled with the recent decline in China's imports and exports of natural rubber, as well as subdued demand from downstream tire manufacturers, the short-term market trend is expected to be characterized by volatile corrections.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
Difference Type Today's Value (2026-08-10) Yesterday's Value (2026-08-09) Direction of Change
5-day average difference (D5) 1.67 40.00 -
10-day average difference (D10) 170.00 173.33 -
20 Day Average Difference (D20) 10.00 -24.58 +
II. Signal State Determination
The current deviation change direction combination is (－, －, ＋), which belongs to a deep correction (bearish, with a corrective nature).
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating, reason: the change directions of the three moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day) are not completely consistent with the previous day, meeting the criteria for an oscillating market, and it is currently in a deep correction phase with a bearish oscillation.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price position: in the mid-lower range, with some support for a decline.
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-low range, with some support for further downside.
1 year cycle price position: mid-high, with limited upside potential.
Overall, there is insufficient momentum for short-term price increases, and there is some support during the correction process, with the overall fluctuation range being limited.
Five, 1-year trend chart
VI. Market and Industry Chain Dynamics
Spot market: On August 10, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao region of China was largely stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream price for 24-year Yunnan Bao / Guangken / Haibao was 168,500 to 170,000 CNY per ton; the mainstream price for 25-year Yunnan Bao / Guangken / Haibao was 170,500 to 172,000 CNY per ton; and the mainstream price for Vietnamese 3L was 181,500 to 183,500 CNY per ton.
Import and export data: In July 2026, China imported 580,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, down 8.5% year-on-year; from January to July, cumulative imports totaled 4.515 million tons, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, Indonesia’s exports of natural rubber (excluding compounded rubber) amounted to 649,000 tons, down 23% year-on-year. In the first seven months, Côte d'Ivoire’s rubber export volume reached 1.06 million tons, down 2% year-on-year.
Downstream demand: In the first half of 2026, U.S. tire imports declined by 2.5% year-on-year; in the second quarter, Europe’s replacement tire market saw sales increase by 3.1% year-on-year; downstream inquiries from China were generally moderate, and demand remained subdued.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
