China's innovative drugs entering the global market is the future trend, and the wave of products entering the global market is expected in 2022

With the increase in the stock of innovative drugs year by year and the intensification of in-volume, coupled with the general background of medical insurance cost control, it has become a general trend for innovative drugs to enter the global market. However, in the context of the relative lack of funds for medical insurance, in order to protect more types of diseases and cover a wider range of patients, limiting the price of listed drugs through medical insurance negotiations has become an effective means of policy regulation. It is foreseeable that the coverage of drugs included in the collection and medical insurance negotiations will continue to expand in the future,, and innovative drugs enter the global market and promote the pipeline into the global market to become the best choice for innovative drug companies.

We believe that innovative pharmaceutical companies have entered a phase of rapid growth and expansion, and are expected to give birth to international pharmaceutical giants in the future, relying on China's favorable policy environment, R&D resources and market environment. Combining the current development status of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, we expect that Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies will enter the global market and grow into overseas pharmaceutical giants through three stages. The relevant time periods for these three stages and their main signs are as follows.

Phase I (2010~2022): Several drugs have entered into license out/in collaboration with overseas pharmaceutical companies, clinical teams have been established overseas and several drugs are conducting clinical trials overseas, and various subsidiaries/research institutes have been established overseas.

Phase II (2022~2032): New drugs will be marketed in the U.S., the world's largest pharmaceutical market, initial commercialization teams will be established overseas, and overseas sales of drugs will reach $100 million.

Phase III (2032~): The first new drug enters the global market amounting to US$5 billion, with Chinese commercialization teams in multiple locations around the world.

After years of clinical trial layout, Chinese innovative drug companies are expected to see intensive clinical data disclosure in 2022. According to past experience, it generally takes 1 year to conduct phase 1 clinical trials, 1-2 years for phase 2 clinical trials and 2-4 years for phase 3 clinical trials. Considering the relevant clinical trials conducted and the expected time consumed, most of the key clinical trials conducted between 2019 and 2021 are expected to achieve relevant results in 2022 and publish relevant Clinical trial data, China's innovative drug products are expected to usher in a number of clinical data disclosure in 2022.