July 11th News
Entering July, the price of polyester staple fiber in China has stopped falling and has slightly rebounded. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 11, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) in China was 7,332 CNY per ton, an increase of 0.29% from the beginning of the month.
PX, PTA Maintenance Peak, Cost End Strongly Supported
July is the peak season for annual PX maintenance, with multiple large PX units shutting down, leading to a decrease in the Asian PX operating rate, which directly increases the raw material cost of PTA. Coupled with concentrated PTA maintenance in China and the industry's operating rate dropping to its lowest level of the year, PTA spot prices are relatively strong, supporting the bottom price of polyester staple fiber from the top down, becoming the most critical positive factor for short fiber this month. Crude oil remains in a range-bound oscillation between $70-73, with no risk of a one-sided sharp decline, thus solidifying the cost floor of the entire polyester chain.
Domestic production slightly contracted, and inventory is slowly being reduced.
The operating rate of the polyester staple fiber industry in China remains around 75%, with some manufacturers implementing phased production limits and volume controls, resulting in limited monthly supply increases. Factory and intermediary trade inventories have slightly decreased, with a reduction in low-priced supplies. There is a certain willingness to maintain prices for spot quotations, which reduces the downward pressure on prices.
Textile demand is generally low during the off-season, limiting the upward trend
July is still in the traditional textile off-season in China, with downstream pure polyester yarn factories operating at a lower capacity and grey cloth inventory being high. Orders for autumn and winter fabrics from end-users have not yet been placed in bulk, so yarn factories are only making sporadic purchases based on immediate needs and show little willingness to stock up. This results in a low production and sales ratio for short fiber, making it difficult to sustain a significant price increase, with the upward potential clearly limited.
Analysts believe that the short-term PX and PTA maintenance cycles have not yet ended, with cost support remaining firm, and polyester staple fiber will continue to experience a narrow range of high-level fluctuations. In early August, when the maintenance equipment is restarted, upstream supply will increase, and the market trend will depend on the fulfillment strength of downstream autumn and winter orders. If demand falls short of expectations, the price of staple fiber may weaken.
