ABS Fell by More than 36%, and PC Prices Fell to a Two-year Low!

Nearly two-thirds of 2022 has passed, and ABS has also undergone many changes. The price has fallen to a low level. After the start of construction and profitability fell to a new low, some of them rebounded again. For the market outlook, what remains unchanged is the unspeakably optimistic market.

This year, due to the impact of comprehensive negative factors at home and abroad, the problem of supply and demand balance is sharp and prominent, and the superimposed cost remains high. The ABS market has finally been defeated, not only the high profit level is gone forever, but even a loss situation for a time.

Although the profit of ABS-related petrochemical plants has been repaired with the decline in cost in the third quarter, new ABS plants such as Liaoning Jinfa Bora are eyeing them, and some ABS plants are running at full capacity again to cope with the possible changes in the market. Therefore, ABS petrochemicals in the future The level of corporate profitability may be difficult to return to the moment that has passed.

As of August 25, the theoretical average profit margin of domestic ABS petrochemical manufacturers has fallen from around 5,700 CNY/ton in May 2021 to around 1,700 CNY/ton in August 2022, a drop of more than 70%.

Since mid-March 2022, the epidemic has been fierce again, and the early overdraft of downstream demand has greatly reduced the consumption of ABS; in addition, it is difficult to form effective support for the raw material surface, the ABS market has a bad atmosphere, and the market price has been falling and constantly refreshed during the year. new low.

As of mid-August, the mainstream offers of domestic supply in the Dongguan market in South China have fallen to the low point of the year. Due to the pressure of low profitability and low demand, superimposed on the commissioning of new units, routine maintenance, and shortage of individual catalyst supply, domestic ABS petrochemical manufacturers will have two relatively concentrated production reductions in 2022.

Especially in June-July, the losses were obvious, shipments were under pressure, and the daily level of the overall domestic ABS operating rate dropped to less than 70%. However, with the return of profits and the partial demand for speculative stockpiling, the starting load of ABS petrochemical manufacturers has gradually increased.

Profits have rebounded and construction starts have increased. However, demand remains sluggish, and the market is still unspeakably optimistic. At present, the speculative demand in the market has declined, and the actual downstream demand is even weaker under the influence of external factors such as high temperature and power cuts.

The increase in the domestic supply of ABS has aggravated the pessimistic atmosphere in the market. Under the leadership of the contradiction between supply and demand, the short-term decline will continue.

Let's take a look at the recent trend of PC raw materials. It is a tragic one. PC has returned to the market in 2020!

It can be seen from the changes in PC fluctuations in the past month: in mid-July, the mainstream average price of PC in the South China market was still 17,100 CNY/ton. In just one month, the average market price had dropped to 16,450 CNY/ton, a drop of 650 CNY/ton within the month. Ton!

This is only the average market price. The negotiated price of some low-end brands has dropped to 14,000 CNY/ton. Looking at the price trend of the PC market in recent years, it is surprising that the PC price has hit a new low in the past two years!

In fact, in the past month, the price of bisphenol A has continued to rise, rising by more than 900 CNY/ton within the month, and the market price has returned to 12,700 CNY/ton.

Looking at it this way, the price difference between PC and cost raw materials is only 1,000. Although the price of bisphenol A has risen due to the bidding of petrochemical plants, it still cannot provide effective cost support for PC.

To put it bluntly, in addition to demand, inventory is also inseparable! When it comes to inventory, we have to mention the operating rate!

Following the restart of the PC plant of Shanghai Mitsubishi after the overhaul, Yanhua Polycarbonate's 60,000-ton PC plant has entered the scheduled maintenance period. Although the 100,000-ton PC plant of Zhonglan Guosu was temporarily shut down due to power cuts, some petrochemical plants actually began to increase the operating rate. , The operating rate of petrochemical plants has steadily increased despite the lack of demand for PCs. . . As of last week, the industry's total operating rate remained above 66.08%.