Power coal: can the rise of northern port continue?

In the near future, the power coal market of the northern port has continued to operate in a strong way. On the one hand, due to the impact of blizzard in the main production area in the early stage, the development and transportation volume has continued to be low. The coal production of the superimposed production area is affected by environmental protection and safety inspection and snowfall, and the coal supply is further tightened. On the other hand, some downstream enterprises still have the demand for goods preparation in the Spring Festival, and the supply and demand is tight. Traders' bullish sentiment is rising, and the mainstream quotation continues to rise. At present, 5500 kcal power coal mainstream quotation is 555-560 CNY/ton, and 5000 kcal quotation is 495-500 CNY/ton. Compared with last week, it is up 4 CNY/ton. In terms of port inventory, the inventory continued to decline. Taking Qinhuangdao port as an example, as of January 10, the inventory dropped to 4.775 million tons, down 1.19 million tons compared with the same period last month, and down 1.068 million tons compared with the same period last year.

The transfer in volume continued to decline, basically in the state of net transfer out and stock down, and the available for sale spot is tight at present. In particular, the supply of high-quality and low sulfur montmorillonite is in short supply. Affected by the short-term supply shortage, the port coal price may continue to rise. In the aspect of downstream demand, the short-term downstream enterprises' year-end rush and cooling effect led to the recovery of daily coal consumption of power plants. At present, the inventory of national key power plants has dropped below 80 million tons, and that of six coastal power plants has dropped to 14.9477 million tons as of the 10th day. The daily coal consumption has shown a slight upward trend in recent years, maintaining above 700000 tons. But at present, the power plant is still dominated by consumption inventory. In the middle and late ten days, downstream enterprises have been shut down in succession, and the power load will also fall, and the demand side is insufficient to support the rise of coal price. In the near future, the production area is affected by snowfall, the road transportation is not smooth, the overall sales situation of the coal mine is general, the coal price maintains stable operation, the lump coal is still under pressure, and the trend of the final coal is good. Some of the coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, suffered from poor sales and inventory pressure, and the coal price was reduced by 5-10 CNY/ton. Affected by the port market, the demand for final coal is good and the price of coal is rising steadily in Jinmeng area. With the improvement of the road operation in the production area, there is still a certain demand for replenishment in the lower reaches before the festival. Most of the coal mines have a good mentality, and the production of the production area has increased, and the supply continues to tighten.

Some coal mines have a bullish expectation for the later period. In terms of imported coal, at present, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, some power plants are continuously bidding for procurement, and some ports in South China have increased the import coal clearance, but the overall customs clearance is not expected to be smooth. According to market news, the current customs clearance policies of Fujian and Xiamen for imported coal are as follows: in addition to the four terminal power plants that can directly pass the customs, others, including traders, first apply for inspection, and then cross-border customs clearance. According to Zhongyu information, in the short term, the northern port market may continue to rise due to the impact of low delivery from the production area and tight supply. In the middle and late ten days, as the demand continues to weaken, the coal price may have a correction. However, considering the production stoppage of coal mines in the production area, low supply and limited space for coal price decline, we still need to pay attention to the changes in supply and demand and the customs clearance of imported coal.