Methanol Market Conditions Rebound with Volatility

January 9th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from January 4th to 9th (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China ports of the Chinese market rose from 2,245 CNY/ton to around 2,265 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 0.93% during the period, up 8.93% month-over-month, and down 15.27% year-over-year. Driven by the expectation of reduced imports and unstable international conditions, which boosted market sentiment, the port methanol market mainly strengthened. Supported by rising port prices, increased external purchases of olefins, and post-holiday restocking by downstream users, methanol prices in many regions of China have risen.

As of the close on January 9, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures closing price for January 9, 2026, rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 2238 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 2276 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 2211 CNY/ton. It closed at 2273 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, a price increase of 1.34%. The trading volume was 1,553,611, and the open interest was 812,955, with a daily change in open interest of -57,244.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

Summary of Methanol Market Prices by Region as of January 9:

On the cost side, the slow release of demand for coal restocking will restrain the extent of any rebound in coal prices, providing limited support for methanol prices. The cost side of methanol is influenced by relatively favorable factors.

Comparison Chart of Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) and Methanol Price Trends:

Demand Side: Demand for olefins in mainland China remains relatively stable, though consumption in traditional sectors has declined somewhat, widening the supply-demand gap in the market. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and methanol demand is weighed down by bearish factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply side, Jiu Ding in Inner Mongolia is undergoing plant maintenance; the facility of Zhongyuan Dahan has resumed operations. Overall, the amount of lost production is greater than the amount recovered, leading to a decrease in output. However, due to a reduction in the base of effective capacity, the capacity utilization rate has increased month-over-month. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on January 8, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 321.5–322.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 87.5–88.5 cents per gallon; and the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market closed at EUR 259.5–260.5 per ton.

Outlook for the future, with expectations of a significant reduction in methanol imports and a notable contraction in supply, there is potential for inventory levels to decrease, leading the market to shift towards a tight balance, which could support price increases. Methanol analysts predict that the spot market for methanol in China is expected to rise again.