The supply and demand of coal resumed in upstream and downstream

At present, the epidemic control has entered the most critical stage. The supply pace of upstream coal stations has slowed down, while the demand for downstream coal stations is also very low. This week, the coastal coal market is in a slow recovery stage, the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea continues to remain low, and the market coal price keeps rising slightly. Affected by the epidemic, the resumption of downstream industry was delayed; while the industrial power load decreased, the weather in the South turned warm, and the civil power load also decreased, and the power plant continued to maintain low daily consumption. Up to now, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants is only 372000 tons. Due to the low daily consumption, the available days of coal storage are as high as 45 days. Except for the limitation of site storage and the low available days of coal storage in Shangdian group, the remaining available days of coal storage in coastal power plants are all above the warning line, and the highest available days of coal storage in zheneng power plant are as high as 194 days.

Most of the main power plants in the coastal areas are still in the form of changxiegang, which needs to be transported and consumes its own coal storage. They are not eager to receive the goods. Some small and medium-sized households and users whose coal storage has declined rapidly during the long holiday are active in hauling and receiving the goods at a higher price. Recently, affected by cargo such as ships and heavy fog weather, the number of anchor ships in Qinhuangdao port has increased continuously, reaching 43, a new high since June 14 last year; most of the ships are dedicated to Hauling Coal from power plants or special fields with coal and China coal, and they flow to Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas more. Upstream, the resumption of production and work is in the recovery stage. At the same time of epidemic prevention and control, Erdos City has made overall efforts to resume production of enterprises. At present, 62 coal mines in the city have resumed production. Large coal enterprises such as Tongmei and Zhongmei are also speeding up the pace of resumption. From the situation of coal producing provinces and regions, affected by the epidemic situation, the main problem is that the number of migrant workers returning to work is relatively small; in addition, it takes a week for some coal mines to apply for resumption of work for production to be approved, which prolongs the resumption of work. As the upstream shipment is not ideal, the railway transportation volume has been improved slowly, and the amount of coal stored in the port around Bohai Sea has remained low.

The impact of the epidemic on the supply side seems to be higher than that on the demand side, which also largely supports the trend that coal prices continue to rise slightly in stability. It is expected that coal prices will continue to rise this week. With the increase of market coal arrival and the recovery of downstream procurement, the number of spot delivery will further increase, the price will stabilize, and the port throughput is expected to increase. This week, upstream and downstream industrial enterprises returned to work one after another, with a slow increase in demand and supply, and the coastal coal market in a slow recovery stage. It is expected that from next week, the daily energy consumption of the six major coastal power plants will rise to more than 450000 tons, while the traffic volume of the Daqin line and the Tanghu line will also increase in a restorative way, and the number of unloading and arriving ships at China's ports around the Bohai Sea will also increase significantly. Later this month, if the epidemic alarm can be lifted, the coastal coal transportation market is expected to recover rapidly, and the double high of coal supply and demand will reappear.