Loose supply and demand aggravates the decline of port coal price

Due to the long-term oversupply of coal, the transit speed of northern ports has slowed down significantly, the inventory contradiction has been further deepened, and the pressure has been continuously transmitted upward. In this cycle, the trading activity of northern ports continued to decline, and the spot price went down through the long-term co price, with a significant increase in the decline. Power coal prices accelerated downward on April 1, 2020. According to the latest data released by Qinhuangdao coal network, the power coal price index around Bohai Sea closed at 546 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton on a month on month basis. On the spot side, the spot price of 5000 kcal thermal power coal is 473 CNY/ton, and the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal power coal is 537 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton on a month on month basis. In this cycle, the transaction price of power coal specification products in Bohai port continued to decline in a large scale, with a drop of about 5-10 CNY/ton. Among them, the price of 4500 kcal power coal in Qinhuangdao port is 430-440 CNY/ton, the price of 5000 kcal power coal is 480-490 CNY/ton, the price of 5500 kcal power coal is 540-550 CNY/ton, and the price of 5800 kcal thermal power coal is 570-580 CNY/ton, with a downward trend of 5 CNY/ton on a month on month basis.

According to the analysis of the research and Development Department of Qinhuangdao coal network, the supply elasticity of domestic power coal market is significantly higher than the demand elasticity, and the coal price continues to seek the bottom down. The coal production of northern port is in the predicament of inefficient operation, and the inventory is rapidly accumulating. The current spot long-term cooperation and futures spot price jointly decline, and the Bohai Rim power coal price index continues to decline. First, the demand side production basically recovers, But the elasticity of consumption is lower than that of production and supply. According to the latest news from the Ministry of industry and information technology, as of March 28, the average operating rate of Industrial Enterprises above designated size has reached 98.6%, and the resumption of work and production has been carried out orderly. But regionally, affected by the overseas epidemic, the electricity demand of export-oriented small and medium-sized manufacturing industry in coastal areas has not fully recovered. The daily consumption of the six major power plants monitored by the coal grid dropped by more than 11% year on year, and the loose contradiction between supply and demand in the coastal power coal market is still prominent.

The recovery of power coal industry chain is facing challenges, and the contradiction of high storage in port is deepening. Port production is constrained by the lack of demand, and the transfer efficiency is at a very low level in recent years. Coal pressure is stagnant in the port, causing congestion in the middle of the chain. In this cycle, the daily average number of ships in qintangcang anchorage area is less than 27, and the ratio of ships to berths is only 1 / 3. The port production pressure is increasing. At present, the shipping demand is seriously insufficient, and the inventory will reach the pressure level after the high base continues, which may affect the railway centralized transportation in the future. The contradiction between the current situation of port high inventory and the demand of going to storage under low demand will be further deepened.

The spot price falls below the long-term association and has a staggered impact. With the continuous decline of spot price, the actual trading price of the port in this cycle pierces the annual long-term cooperative price, and the price difference is more than 10 CNY/ton, resulting in the pressure on the annual long-term cooperative cash, and the settlement price is linked to the cash rate as a ladder preference. At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, it is at the node of price adjustment of long-term cooperation. The overall situation of price reduction of long-term cooperation has been determined in April, and the spot price and long-term cooperation price will form a trend of staggered decline. Due to the long-term oversupply of coal, the transit speed of northern ports slowed down significantly, the inventory contradiction deepened further, and the pressure also continued to transmit upward. In this cycle, the trading activity of northern ports continued to decline, and the spot price went down through the long-term co price, with a significant increase in the decline. Power coal prices accelerated downward on April 1, 2020. According to the latest data released by Qinhuangdao coal network, the power coal price index around Bohai Sea closed at 546 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton on a month on month basis. On the spot side, the spot price of 5000 kcal thermal power coal is 473 CNY/ton, and the spot price of 5500 kcal thermal power coal is 537 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton on a month on month basis. In this cycle, the transaction price of power coal specification products in Bohai port continued to decline in a large scale, with a drop of about 5-10 CNY/ton.

Among them, the price of 4500 kcal power coal in Qinhuangdao port is 430-440 CNY/ton, the price of 5000 kcal power coal is 480-490 CNY/ton, the price of 5500 kcal power coal is 540-550 CNY/ton, and the price of 5800 kcal thermal power coal is 570-580 CNY/ton, with a downward trend of 5 CNY/ton on a month on month basis. According to the analysis of Qinhuangdao coal network research and development department, the supply elasticity of domestic power coal market is significantly higher than that of demand elasticity, and the coal price continues to seek the bottom down. The coal production of northern port is in the predicament of inefficient operation, with rapid accumulation of inventory. The current spot long-term cooperation and futures spot price jointly decline, and the Bohai Rim power coal price index continues to decline. First, the demand side production basically recovers, But the elasticity of consumption is lower than that of production and supply. According to the latest news from the Ministry of industry and information technology, as of March 28, the average operating rate of Industrial Enterprises above designated size has reached 98.6%, and the resumption of work and production has been carried out orderly. But regionally, affected by the overseas epidemic, the electricity demand of export-oriented small and medium-sized manufacturing industry in coastal areas has not fully recovered. The daily consumption of the six major power plants monitored by the coal grid dropped by more than 11% year on year, and the loose contradiction between supply and demand in the coastal power coal market is still prominent.

The recovery of power coal industry chain is facing challenges, and the contradiction of high storage in port is deepening. Port production is constrained by the lack of demand, and the transfer efficiency is at a very low level in recent years. Coal pressure is stagnant in the port, causing congestion in the middle of the chain. In this cycle, the daily average number of ships in qintangcang anchorage area is less than 27, and the ratio of ships to berths is only 1 / 3. The port production pressure is increasing. At present, the shipping demand is seriously insufficient, and the inventory will reach the pressure level soon after the high base continues, which may affect the railway centralized transportation in the future. The contradiction between the current situation of high inventory and the demand of going to storage under low demand will be further deepened.

The spot price falls below the long-term association and has a staggered impact. With the continuous decline of spot price, the actual trading price of the port in this cycle pierces the annual long-term cooperative price, and the price difference is more than 10 CNY/ton, resulting in the pressure on the annual long-term cooperative cash, and the settlement price is linked to the cash rate as a ladder preference. At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, it is at the node of price adjustment of long-term cooperation. The overall situation of price reduction of long-term cooperation has been determined in April, and the spot price and long-term cooperation price will form a trend of staggered decline.