BDO Market Prices Consolidate in a Narrow Range

February 13th, it was reported that

According to the commodity market analysis system, from February 6th to 13th, the BDO price in China increased from 7,357 CNY/ton to 7,371 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 0.19% during the period, and a month-on-month increase of 0.19%, while a year-on-year decrease of 11.95%. The supply of goods decreased slightly, and some downstream factories were shut down for the holiday, leading to an overall weakening in demand. The gap between supply and demand still exists. As the Spring Festival approaches, many industry players have taken time off, resulting in a light trading atmosphere, and the BDO market in China has shown fluctuation within a certain range.

Supply side: In terms of facilities, the second phase of the Dongjing plant is operating at a reduced load, while other plants are running stably, leading to a decrease in the supply volume. The BDO supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Facilities:

Cost Perspective: Regarding raw material calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market remains stable, with manufacturers experiencing smooth shipments and heightened regional supply tightness. Overall market supply before the holiday period is stable, though some enterprises have scheduled sporadic maintenance activities. Downstream buyers are actively stocking up ahead of the Spring Festival; however, vehicle shortages are intensifying, leading to uneven delivery schedules across different regions. As for the raw material methanol, the methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating. As of 10:00 a.m. on February 13, the reference price for methanol in Taicang, China, was around 2,200 CNY per ton. With both calcium carbide and methanol prices fluctuating and consolidating, the impact on BDO costs is mixed—both positive and negative.

Demand Side: Several key downstream PBT plants have halted operations for maintenance until after the Spring Festival holiday. Consequently, capacity utilization in the PBAT, TPU, and PU slurry industries has also declined, leading to a significant reduction in raw material consumption. This has intensified supply-demand pressures across the industry, leaving market participants generally cautious in their buying and selling activities. Moreover, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, major players are gradually exiting the market to take vacation, further dampening the atmosphere for actual transaction negotiations. As a result, BDO demand is being weighed down by negative factors.

Market Forecast: As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, market participants will be on vacation, leading to a stagnant market. BDO plant operations remain stable with no fluctuations in supply. However, some downstream facilities are either still under maintenance or have shut down for repairs, resulting in a continued reduction in raw material consumption. The gap between domestic supply and demand is expected to widen further, with insufficient fundamental support. BDO analysts predict that the Chinese BDO market will enter a holiday mode, with no actual transactions, and the market focus will remain subdued.