Unstable factors in the cost of polyether, mainly bargaining and shipping

Last week, the raw material propylene oxide shipments improved and inventory pressure was released. Affected by the rise in propylene, the daily increase of propylene oxide was around 200 CNY/ton. It was intended to reverse the upside down situation. However, under the support of costs, it is still hard to escape the fate of passive follow-up. As of Friday's close, the mainstream of soft foam water in Shandong and North China closed at around 7400-7900 CNY/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.76%. With the price of polyether rising, the market returned to the market without price, and the polyether is still secretly shipped below the PO price in South China. I thought that there was only a small passive rise in polyether, which was gradually bearish in the later period, but polypropylene caused a sharp rise in propylene over the weekend, and the market rose instead of falling, and the increase was amazing:

After the wide-ranging PO increase of 1,000 yuan on Saturday, the POP category of Shandong ’s main polyether plant was raised by 500 CNY/ton on Sunday, and the remaining offers were raised by 900 CNY/ton. Individual soft bubble offers rose to 9,200 CNY/ton. They have suspended their quotations and waited for the new upstream price guidance. Under the speculative operation of individual radicals on Sunday, propylene soared 5,000 CNY/ton to 12,000 CNY/ton, but the Shandong market finally closed to 7400-8000 CNY/ton. There was no transaction for more than 10,000 yuan. The propylene oxide plant weighed heavily Returning to the state of loss, the factory fell negatively, followed by a wide range of increase, and then, propylene oxide rose another 1,000 CNY/ton, and the Shandong market closed at 9400-9500 CNY/ton, an increase of 27.03%. At this time, the focus of attention turned to the reaction of the main polyether factory. At the beginning of the week, the polyether offer became the focus of everyone's attention. However, it is a pity that most of the polyether factories today suspend quotation.

On the one hand, the upstream raw material prices have skyrocketed, on the other hand, the downstream demand has been weak to follow up. At the beginning of this week, polyether had to press the pause button. Since the prices of propylene and propylene oxide in the upstream have skyrocketed over the weekend, most of the downstream are in the attitude of watching, and there are few high-level new orders in the market. Some customers who just need a small amount of demand, after weighing the pros and cons, shrink carefully. The upstream soaring market caused the downstream to worry about the future market plunge, and the overall market was slightly cautious.

Will the raw material PO rise in the long term?

Except for the vigorous development of polypropylene downstream, other downstream butanol, propylene oxide, and acrylonitrile have fallen into large losses. Even if the offer follows the increase in propylene, it is difficult for the downstream and terminal to buy single orders. False bubbles, with the continuous improvement of mask production and export policies and the strengthening of quality control in the later period, after the small workshops and unqualified production capacity are offline, the market is expected to return to the calm before the madness, but the process of propylene and polypropylene downward revisions to the main line may be slightly It is long and the time node is relatively difficult to control.

At present, the propylene oxide main factories have different attitudes. Although the northern main factory's offer has risen to a high of 9400-9500 CNY/ton, but today's Zhenhai contract offer only rose to 8400 CNY/ton. Wanhua Shandong mainstream market cash sent the price It only rose to 8500 CNY/ton, the price difference between different sources in the market was large, and the high-priced source in the north was slightly high and low. The market's wait-and-see attitude has intensified, and the market outlook is lacking in confidence.

Under various trade-offs, it is expected that the cost of short-term polyether will still be unstable. The main factories are temporarily unable to quote, and will still focus on bargaining and shipment. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to upstream news and enter the market cautiously. However, after finishing high, the market will gradually return to the rational price range.