Cost Side Stops Falling and Rebounds; PC Prices Stabilize and Consolidate in November

December 1st -

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, at the end of November, the PC market in China was mainly consolidating. The spot prices for most grades showed a mix of increases and decreases. As of November 25, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 13,766.67 CNY/ton, with a price change rate of -2.82% compared to early November.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: In November, after a period of reduced operating rates among Chinese PC polymer enterprises, production levels rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the industry took over from previous shutdowns and maintenance periods at Lihua Yiwai and Pingmei Shenma. Mid-month, Zhejiang Petrochemical announced maintenance plans covering multiple production lines, and Luxi Chemical also scheduled shutdowns for some of its production lines. Currently, Lihua Yiwai has resumed operations in mid-November, and with Shenma’s return at month-end, the industry’s operating rate has risen to around ??%, with weekly average output approaching 65,000 tons. Next week, supply of premium-grade materials is expected to recover, easing supply constraints. However, current inventory levels, after being reduced in the earlier period, remain relatively manageable, and the pressure on production and sales within the market remains bearable. Overall, the supply side’s contribution to PC prices has essentially stabilized.

Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the BPA market experienced a downward trend in the first half of November, followed by a recovery in the second half. The price range for upstream phenol and acetone remained relatively weak and fluctuated, making it difficult to view this as positive for the BPA market. However, after the first half of the month had been absorbed, inventory pressure at BPA plants eased. Coupled with spot prices dropping to low levels, companies and traders stepped up their efforts to hold prices steady, providing bottom-supporting momentum that led to a rebound in the latter half of the month. On the other hand, demand for BPA has yet to show any improvement, and recent actual transaction volumes have seen limited changes. It is expected that BPA prices will likely remain stable in the near term, providing only moderate support to PC costs.

Demand Side: Downstream factories’ utilization rates remain less than ideal, and inventory-building strategies continue to focus on buying at lower prices, reflecting weak rigid demand. Customs data show that export markets have slightly declined from their previous low levels, and PC terminal companies are adopting a conservative production schedule. Within this range, traders tend to follow market trends closely, and industry players remain cautious and adopt a wait-and-see attitude. After the initial demand for replenishing short positions has been satisfied, market trading activity has returned to a quieter state, and the pace of goods circulation has slowed once again. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices remains moderate.

Future Market Prediction

In November, the Chinese PC market maintained its prices. The upstream bisphenol A market recovered after a decline, alleviating the cost pressure on PC. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants remained largely stable with minor adjustments, and there is an expectation of increased supply in the future. Market transactions remained sluggish, with a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments. It is expected that the PC market may remain in a stalemate in the short term.