Pressure on coal price to fall in the vicinity of many ports

Affected by the increase of transfer in and limited transfer out, the inventory of ports around Bohai Sea is increasing, and the pressure of port evacuation is increasing. Up to now, China's ports around the Bohai Sea have accumulated 28.25 million tons of coal, an increase of 2.78 million tons compared with the beginning of April, and a significant increase of 11.33 million tons compared with the beginning of March. Among them, coal storage in Jingtang new port, Caofeidian Coal phase II, and Jingtang Port of state investment achieved leapfrog growth. Many ports around the Bohai Sea have approached the critical point of "port dredging". With the increasing of port inventory, the storage space of coal on the site is shrinking, and the utilization ratio of coal storage capacity is gradually decreasing.

If the storage continues to increase, some coal types will be piled up without land, which will affect the unloading operation of the port, and the expectation of "port dredging" of some ports in the north is increasingly strong. In late March, Jingtang Port has restricted the delivery and arrival plan of the railway of the shipping enterprises with high coal inventory, and through the collection of "overdue storage fee" and other measures, to speed up the turnover and inventory removal, which has a negative impact on the price trend of power coal. Once the coal storage in Qinhuangdao port and other major ports is too high, the measures to increase the storage fee will be put forward to speed up the transportation, which will inevitably urge coal traders to continue to reduce prices and promote sales, speed up the turnover of goods, and boost the coal price to continue to fall.

Affected by the low demand of the downstream, poor sales, inventory accumulation and other factors, some of the upstream shipping enterprises began to consciously control the coal production; recently, the traffic volume of Daqin line and Tanghu line decreased compared with the previous stage. The uncertainty of imported coal management and control is large. It is estimated that in the short term, the import volume is unlikely to drop significantly. From January to February this year, China's total coal import reached 68.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%; China's total coal import still maintained a rapid growth year-on-year. Due to the large amount of imported coal at the beginning of the year, the consumption of imported coal quota of some customs is relatively fast throughout the year, and the high level of coal inventory of users and the low demand, some regions began to control the imported coal. Therefore, there is a big uncertainty in the implementation of the later import coal policy; however, considering that the cost performance of imported coal is still high, it is expected that in the second quarter, there will be no significant decline in imported coal. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control, all industries are in the phase of returning to work one after another, and the power demand is gradually picking up; from the end of March, the coal consumption of power plants began to stabilize.

In April, on the one hand, most industries in China have returned to work one after another; on the other hand, the situation in foreign countries is becoming increasingly severe, and the demand for electricity continues to grow, and the power supply is weak. Therefore, in the second quarter, there is not much opportunity for demand recovery in the power coal market, and there is little room for daily consumption increase. In April, the price of power coal will remain weak, and whether the price can rebound depends on whether demand will recover more than expected. From the three aspects of supply and transportation demand, due to the good recovery of supply in the main production areas, the coal ports around the Bohai Sea are speeding up the distribution; however, the downstream cargo reception is not active, the price of counter offer is low, the coastal coal transportation is not smooth, and the overall supply and demand of power coal is expected to further ease. At least in the first half of April, coal prices will still face downward pressure.