Supply Disruptions Repeatedly Resonate, Lithium Carbonate Experiences Sharp Fluctuations

April 1st news

According to the commodity market analysis system monitoring: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated dramatically. As of April 1, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China was 158,000 CNY per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 8.67%, and a year-on-year increase of 113.61%.

This round of market conditions is no longer simply driven by supply and demand, but rather the result of multiple disruptions on the supply side repeatedly fermenting and a low inventory environment amplifying emotions.

Supply Side: Two Major Disturbances Continuously Fermenting in China

(1) Zimbabwe: Export Ban “Pending”

On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe suddenly announced an indefinite suspension of exports of both raw lithium ore and lithium concentrate, covering shipments already in transit.

Affected by this news, the price of lithium carbonate jumped from 140,000 CNY per ton to 170,000 CNY per ton. Recently, there have been reports that Chinese-funded enterprises are in negotiations with the government to push forward with certain measures, though specific details have yet to be finalized. The market has been oscillating repeatedly between expectations of “easing of the ban” and “long-term tightening,” and each rumor triggers dramatic price fluctuations.

(2) Australia: "Oil Shortage Frenzy"

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, some mines in Australia are experiencing a shortage of diesel fuel, prompting reports of “reduced output and curtailed operations.” The price of lithium carbonate rose by 8,000 CNY per ton within the day. Although subsequent clarifications indicated that Australian diesel is primarily used for transportation, and mining operations rely mainly on natural gas for power, lithium production has not yet been directly affected. Nevertheless, lithium mines across the continent are facing challenges such as declining ore grades, slower expansion of production capacity, and reduced output from high-cost mines during periods of low prices—resulting in a significant decline in supply elasticity. Any marginal disruption could easily escalate into a “risk of supply disruption.”

Underlying Environment: Low Inventory + Resilient Demand, Amplifying the Impact of Supply Disruptions

At the end of March, inventory shifted from depletion to accumulation, but the extent was small, and it remains at a low level. Overall, social inventory is low, and once the expectation of supply tightening intensifies, it can easily trigger "stockpiling" and a sharp rise in prices. There is no significant collapse in demand; geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices, making energy storage particularly economical, and the market momentum is strong.

A lithium carbonate data analyst believes that uncertainties surrounding the resumption of production at Zimba, Australia, and Ningde Jianxiawo—whose operations have been suspended—will persist for the long term. Each policy change and logistical disruption could trigger a new round of sharp price swings, causing lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate significantly. The specific direction of these fluctuations will continue to depend on changes in supply and demand.