Lack of rebound in power coal market, slow recovery in demand side

At present, coal upstream enterprises have basically recovered to normal production level, but the recovery of demand side is slow. In the case of loose supply, the power coal market lacks rebound momentum. At present, the recovery of demand is slow. Domestic investment in infrastructure has led to the recovery of industrial production, and April May is the peak season of industrial production. The market expects that the demand rate of electric coal will rise moderately. However, according to the data fed back by the power plant, as of April 7, the daily coal consumption of six coastal power plants fell back to 520500 tons again, 15% lower than the same period of last year, and the recovery of demand end still has a certain gap compared with the same period of previous years.

On the one hand, at the turn of spring and summer, the temperature is suitable, and the demand for electricity for residents has entered the traditional off-season; on the other hand, the prevention and control of social public events is still continuing, the tertiary industry is difficult to return to normal level in a short time, and the impact of international trade stagnation on the domestic economy will gradually appear. In addition, after entering the flood season, hydropower will increase and occupy the market share of power coal. It should be noted that the coal inventory of six coastal power plants is still at a high level in the same period, which restricts the enthusiasm of purchasing power plants in the north. Some power plants even delay the delivery date, and the demand side is extremely low. Since the supply side reform, the supply capacity of the production area has been enhanced. In 2019, the raw coal output has increased by nearly 200 million tons. In March, Shaanxi Wangfeng coal mine was approved by the Energy Bureau, with the construction scale of 3 million tons / year; the production capacity of Gansu Xin'an Coal Company was approved, with the production capacity increased from 900000 tons / year to 1.5 million tons / year, and the high-quality production capacity is still being released orderly.

Even if calculated according to the growth rate of coal production in 2019, it is predicted that the capacity in 2020 will increase by more than 10 million tons compared with last year, and the dependence on imported coal will be reduced. From the perspective of production area, coal production is basically on the right track, and coal supply in the production area is stable and sufficient. In addition, the number of ships in port anchorage only accounted for 20-30% of the same period last year, and the port inventory rose rapidly. As of April 3, the inventory of ports around Bohai Sea was 24.2 million tons, with a month on month growth of 58%, higher than 14% on a year-on-year basis, approaching the highest inventory level in recent years. The downstream consumption pressure began to transmit to the middle and upper reaches, which had a great impact on the coal market, weakening the positive effects of active production reduction and import coal restriction on the supply side. Last week, Shenhua announced the price of long-term cooperation in April. The price of all purchased products dropped by more than 25 CNY/ton. For the first time, the price of purchased coal was lower than that of self-produced coal, and a large amount of preferential policies were adopted.

Large coal enterprises, such as Shaanxi coal and China coal, have followed up one after another. The actual transaction price has dropped, and port quotations have been significantly reduced in a single day. As of April 3, Fenwei energy's cci5500 kcal power coal price index closed at 520 CNY/ton, down 21 CNY/ton on a weekly basis. Affected by the active reduction of spot prices, the spot price gap has been at a high level in the same period in recent years, which will restrict the rebound space of spot prices. However, for a time, the main contract fell below 500 CNY/ton in 2009, and once it fell below the "green range", or triggered policy regulation. Generally speaking, due to the lack of favorable themes in fundamentals, it is difficult for the price of power coal to reverse the current weakness, and the basis will also limit the rebound space of the period price.