:: Reduction of negative production from plant stock pressure affected by the epidemic

:: Low downstream start-up

:: BDO market weakening

Domestic BDO Price Trend Chart 2019-2020

This month domestic BDO market prices continued to decline, factories continued to limit the price policy, the overall start-up remained low, in April the average operating rate of domestic BDO plants at about 35.5%, down 2.3% from March, mainly to digest pre-stock. Yet the current inflection point of the global epidemic is not present, BDO terminal industry export channels are blocked, downstream PBT/PTMEG and other products are also high and low inventory, partial parking, limited demand for BDO, market intention to fill positions and low acceptance of high settlement prices, although factories and traders are interested in profit promotion, but demand can not follow up, the market has a boundless empty trend.

In raw materials, the methanol market in China rose first and then fell first. At the beginning of the month, some cities began to stop or reduce their losses. The supply side was lower, and prices were lower.

 Future market forecast: the current domestic BDO market supply and demand imbalance situation is difficult to change, although suppliers are now reducing production prices, but downstream demand has not yet recovered under the limited consumption of raw materials, so it is expected that the short-term domestic BDO market may remain weak, wait and see downstream start-up situation.

No.1 Overall market analysis

1.Factory installation BDO this month

The operating rate of the alkyne aldehyde plant is 35.5% and the monthly output is 57000 tons.

2、Raw material cost and change analysis 

Methanol: raw materials this month china's methanol market as a whole rose and then fell, at the beginning of the month some cities have been installed parking or negative news, the overall domestic start has been reduced, the supply side has a certain positive support, and the current price has been relatively low, cost side support superimposed good supply makes local manufacturers offer slightly firm, but downstream industry resistance to high prices gradually highlighted, supply and demand slightly deadlocked, shipping conditions caused most of the mainland prices to move down wide.

Calcium carbide: domestic calcium carbide market fell mainly this month, calcium carbide operating rate since the middle of the year to maintain a low, supply side has contracted, demand side no obvious good, but downstream inventory consumption before the end of the field or re-emergence of a stable procurement cycle, price adjustment more controllable, due to the resumption of highway charges after May, downstream costs may have increased, the eastern calcium carbide market prices will boost, or lead manufacturers factory prices boost, expected to show a volatile market price trend in May.

3、Main downstream start-up analysis

Under the influence of the epidemic PBT industry, PTMEG industry to reduce the burden of production, BDO downstream overall start lower. .

4. Next month's Market Trend Forecast

No.2 Views and Summary

Current domestic BDO market supply and demand imbalance situation is difficult to change, although the supply side is reducing production prices, but downstream demand has not yet recovered under the limited consumption of raw materials, so Zhongyu expects the short-term domestic BDO market may remain weak, wait and see downstream start-up situation.