Acetone market prices will start to decline

Under the relatively weak environment, chemical products generally showed a low level of volatility. However, the phenolic ketone industry has been hot recently and has become the most concerned star industry. The acetone market has continued to rise. The price has more than doubled since April. There has been a drop, but it is still at a high level. The phenolic ketone factory is profitable. Some downstream products have followed the rise in the raw material market. For example, isopropyl alcohol, bisphenol A, and MMA have all experienced large increases. However, it is believed that the room for continued growth of acetone is very limited.

The acetone market officially started to rise in April, and few major corrections occurred during the period. Up to now, the acetone market negotiations in East China have risen to 8200-8300 CNY/ton, continuing to hit a new high this year. Although the current spot supply is tight, merchants' intentions to maintain prices are still high, and there is no turning point in the market, the acetone market is at the end of the crossbow and continues to rise.

The market outlook is not optimistic for the following reasons: 1. The gains are too fast. Since the end of April, the price of acetone has more than doubled, and the continuous increase in the middle is rare. The market is prone to callbacks. The holders are all profit-taking. Once the market weakens, the merchants will quickly take profits, even Low-sell sales are safe. 2. The profit of phenol ketone factory is too high. At present, the profitability of the phenolic ketone factory has reached as high as 4,000 CNY/ton, which is the highest profit in recent years. Therefore, in addition to routine maintenance, the phenolic ketone factory will inevitably maintain high-load operation. 3. The general downstream purchasing sentiment is generally large-scale downstream is basically consuming low-cost acetone in the early stage, but the current cheap raw materials are basically exhausted. If you purchase acetone from stock, the cost will be too high. For example, the operating rate of the MIBK industry is only 15%, and most companies are forced to stop production due to losses, so the operating rate of the downstream industry may be reduced in the later period. Fourth, large households generally adopt the monthly average price model for settlement. In order to reduce costs, there is a possibility of intentionally suppressing the average price in the middle and late periods, and long merchants may be converted into short positions.

In summary, the tight spot supply of acetone is only temporary, and the tension may be eased in the later period. The price is artificially high and the market is prone to profit taking. However, considering the strength of the downstream isopropanol market, bisphenol A companies basically maintain capital preservation Acetone is normally purchased, so it is expected that acetone will start to fall in mid-to-late May, but there will be no panic plunge, and the main reason for this is a slow callback.