The female Jobs $9 billion scam failed, is the 'drop blood cancer test' a shocking scam, or a ray of hope?

"Blood" has always had magical properties, attracting people from ancient and modern China and abroad, obsessed with various stories derived from blood.

However, the "blood cancer test", which was once held on the altar, eventually settled and became a scam.

After thousands of years, is the magic of "blood" really "unreliable"?

The wind starts when blood drops test for cancer

As the primary enemy threatening human life and health, the early screening and diagnosis of tumors are closely related to the treatment and prognosis of patients.

Taking lung cancer as an example, for early (stage I) lung cancer patients, the five-year survival rate can reach 77%-92%; For advanced (stage IV) patients, the five-year survival rate is only 1% to 10%.

Nearly half of lung cancer patients are already advanced at the time of diagnosis.

Stage at the time of tumor diagnosis significantly affects the survival prognosis. Therefore, early screening and early diagnosis of tumors is very important.

It is based on the fear of cancer and the hope of cure, a simple, practical and reliable way to diagnose and screen tumors early in the spotlight.

Under the heavy reward, there will be a brave man, and this time the brave man is Elizabeth Holmes, a talented girl who dropped out of Stanford University.

She founded Theranos, a blood testing company, in 2003.

The company's products can detect hundreds of indicators with just a few drops of blood, screening for a variety of diseases, including cancer and diabetes.

This "revolutionary technological breakthrough" made Theranos and Holmes famous.

The company's market value reached $9 billion at its peak, and Holmes was also selected into Forbes' list of self-made women, and was once considered a "female version of Jobs" by the outside world.

The turning point came in October 2015, when a Wall Street Journal report exposed a series of deceptive practices by Theranos.

The so-called special customized detection instruments and most of the detection items are completed on traditional equipment, and more importantly, their diagnostic ability for tumors cannot be guaranteed at all.

"Blood cancer test" has since been linked to the scam.

The six-year investigation and trial finally settled on November 18, 2022.

Former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes was sentenced by a federal court to 11 years and three months in prison on four counts of fraud and $121 million in damages to 10 investors.

The difference between a drop blood test for cancer and a traditional test

At present, there are three main and effective ways to screen for cancer.

The first is imaging judgment. Chest radiograph, CT, and MRI are all imaging methods. Imaging methods are suitable for the detection of solid tumors, especially solid tumors of the lungs often need to be accurately judged by imaging.

Second, microscopic examination, that is, through endoscopy. Microscopy is mainly used to examine the digestive system. Esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancers can all be detected by gastroscopy and colonoscopy.

Third, tumor marker screening. There are specific markers from tumor cells in the body fluids (including blood, saliva, urine, etc.) of patients with malignant tumors, which can effectively reflect the molecular variation status of tumor cells at the gene level and suggest the prognosis of patients. Blood tests for tumors mainly include circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), circulating tumor cells, and exosomes. Among them, the most widely used in early tumor screening is ctDNA.

Tumor marker screening is also detected through body fluids, and most importantly, through blood, so what is the difference between tumor marker screening and "blood drop cancer test"?

The first difference is that tumor marker screening generally requires the blood volume of one or even several tubes of the patient to ensure the sensitivity and accuracy of the test, such as ctDNA detection, which requires at least 8-10 ml of blood clinically.

However, "drop blood cancer test" claims that only one drop of blood can complete cancer detection and screening.

The use of blood tests to detect whether there is cancer is recognized and common in the industry.

But the real problem is that today's technology can't be tested with just a drop of blood.

Elizabeth Holmes proposed an advanced concept, but there was no advanced technology and excellent hardware to support this idealized concept.

The second difference is that a single specific tumor marker due to its sensitivity, specificity and limited application of cancer, generally a specific tumor marker to detect a specific cancer, so it will also develop many different types of kits, and even many rare tumors, can only be determined by NGS detection. The "drop blood cancer test" claims to be able to screen more than 200 indicators of a variety of tumors within 4 hours. Universal screening for a wide range of cancers is eye-opening.

The third difference is that the currently commonly used tumor marker detection methods inevitably have false positives, so in the late stage of tumors, other imaging judgment methods are generally assisted. However, "blood test for cancer" is overly publicized and basically does not mention false positives.

"Drop blood cancer test" is essentially our most ideal demand for detection methods.

In the future, if we can really establish a perfect detection tool to help early screening and diagnosis of tumors through a drop of blood, it will definitely benefit the majority of patients.

However, Elizabeth Holmes fooled the majority of investors in fiction, rather than really achieving a "revolutionary breakthrough" from the underlying logic of the technology.

The dawn of the future

In recent years, the development prospects of multi-omics research have become clearer, which has led to the rapid development of the global tumor early screening market, and the cancer detection and diagnosis market of more than 100 billion US dollars has ushered in a golden opportunity for development, including:

Early tumor screening and detection market, MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) detection market, and cancer treatment and optimization detection market.

The global market size is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2022 to 2026, and the global tumor screening and testing market will reach $313.7 billion by 2026.

There are more than 100 million cancer patients worldwide who need early tumor screening and pre-cancer diagnosis, but the market penetration rate is less than 1%.

Major players worldwide include: illumina (Grail), Guardant, Exact Sciences (Thrive), Epiginomics AG, Freenome and Bio-techne.

As the country with the largest number of cancer tumors in the world, China's hematological oncology testing market has also boomed in recent years.

According to Hengzhou Bozhi survey data, in 2020, the size of China's hematological oncology testing market reached 12.334 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 42.216 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.83%.

From the perspective of product type and technology, ctDNA testing currently occupies the main market share, achieving revenue of 8.789 billion yuan in 2020 and expected revenue of 27.745 billion yuan by 2027.

On the one hand, with the accelerated launch of national policies such as the Healthy China Cancer Prevention and Control Special Action, the threshold of tumor prevention and control has moved forward, and the overall awareness of tumor "prevention is greater than cure" is gradually increasing, and the market space in the field of tumor prevention and screening is expected to increase accordingly.

On the other hand, with the continuous breakthroughs of ctDNA enrichment (liquid biopsy), high-throughput sequencing, genetic information interpretation technology, epigenetics, multi-omics technology, and the use of big data methodology to help early cancer screening, I believe that in the near future, "blood drop cancer test" will become a reality from the sky!