Market Analysis - Monthly Report - June, 2020 - Maleic Anhydride

What's hot and trending this month

1) The Maleic anhydride market first fell and then stabilized, with small fluctuations.

2) The downstream demand is still weak, and the market interval is organized and operated.

This month's market summary

Present the fall in June, the domestic market of maleic anhydride after stabilization, since the end of may, start with maleic anhydride load picks up, the market supply, the downstream demand off-season, emerging overbuilt, prices began to fall, after the cloudy price in first half month, second half Maleic anhydride market entered the stage of stalemate, the market fluctuated. This is mainly due to weaker guidance on the cost side. Although the lower raw material market has hit industry confidence to some extent, the basic conservation of supply and demand has supported the market. In June, as the epidemic situation overseas has been brought under control, especially in southeast Asia and South Asia, China's major export regions of maleic anhydride have been brought under control, and the export market has picked up. As a result, the domestic sales volume of some manufacturers has decreased and the shipping pressure has been alleviated to some extent. On the other hand, maleic anhydride manufacturers have a long time to arrange orders, limited position pressure, and a strong willingness to price.

Next month market forecast

The shipping atmosphere of n-butane market is ok. But under the background of substantial profit, the price of raw materials has little influence on the market. Hydrogenation benzene starting load increased, petroleum benzene port inventory high, supply and demand pressure increased, pure benzene market continued to decline, the supply and demand surface is difficult to change in a short time, expected to maintain low operation, benzene method support is limited, maleic anhydride profit is fair, although compared to the last month, but the overall profit level is still good, downstream price willingness is high; At present, the maleic anhydride starts to operate at a high level, in which the n-butane method is basically running at full capacity, the new capacity is expected to start production next month, and the market supply remains at a high level. In July, the resin maintained a stable operation. Under the off-season effect, the demand increase was limited. In July, the periphery and cost are expected to increase due to the weak guidance of maleic anhydride, the release of new production capacity, and the increase of supply end. In addition, maleic anhydride is profitable at present, the downstream price pressure is willing to be high, and the negative factors are obvious. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market is still under downward pressure.

Factory stoppages in China

In June, the utilization rate of maleic anhydride increased significantly compared with that in May. Butane process basically maintained full load operation, and benzene process started relatively smoothly. In the middle of the month, some manufacturers stopped short for several days due to device failure, which had limited impact on supply.

China's MA export trend in 2019-2020

According to customs statistics, China exported 3,520.12 tons of maleic anhydride in May 2020, and the average export price was US $698.50 / ton. China imported 62.98 tons of maleic anhydride in May 2020, with an average import price of us $2758.38 / ton.

Note: the general administration of customs will no longer separately release the import and export data of January and February in 2020, but will merge the data in March and release the data to the public in January and February. The total amount will be divided equally.

Summary and views

The market turbulence was weak in June. Under the circumstances that it is difficult for the demand end to change significantly at present, the maleic anhydride market focused on the supply end change in July. The new device is being put into production actively. On the demand side, the resin off-season effect is obvious, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Although the export market has picked up, the pressure of supply and demand is still large. At present, the profit of maleic anhydride considerable lower price mentality. Therefore, it is expected that short-term supply will still be supported by maleic anhydride prices, but the negative factors cannot be ignored. After the new production capacity comes on stream, the market may fall again.