Keynote of chemical market: restart, oversold repair

In the first half of the year, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, domestic and international economies were under pressure, terminal demand shrank, and crude oil prices plummeted. The domestic chemical market fell sharply, and the maximum amplitude of individual products exceeded 200%, with a decrease of more than 58%. However, the prices of chemical raw materials for some epidemic protection products have skyrocketed, becoming a special "bright spot" in the short term. With the domestic epidemic situation under control, enterprises have resumed production and production, and the chemical market has begun to recover. On the whole, the domestic chemical market experienced a high-mid-bottom-stable process in the first half of the year. Although the differences in product chains in various sub-sectors lead to different trends, but oversold repair is still the main tone.

The traditional chemical product market showed a "V" trend. At the beginning of the year, the traditional chemical product market could continue last year's stable market, but as the epidemic broke out in February, the market began to fluctuate sharply, and oversold has become a common phenomenon. The amplitudes of the five products with higher amplitudes are acetone, isopropanol, butadiene, pure benzene, and diethylene glycol. The amplitudes are as high as 228.9%, 145.69%, 143.5%, 142.9%, and 106.7%, respectively. Among them, butadiene, diethylene glycol, and pure benzene fell by 58.4%, 49.4%, and 47% respectively, ranking the top three in the decline list. The prices of most products hit a new low in early April. With the domestic epidemic situation under control, enterprises resumed production and resumed production, the market restarted and began to rebound. Although they failed to rebound to the level of the beginning of the year, most products completed the oversold repair process.

The market for basic raw materials and end consumer products has stabilized. Some basic chemical products related to people's livelihood and fertilizer series products that are closely related to farmers' interests are also affected by the downturn in the environment and the epidemic situation, but the overall performance is better. In addition to the low level of this kind of product market during the severe period of epidemic prevention and control from February to March, it has basically been on the rise. For example, the mainstream price of sulfur fell from about 500 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to a low of 400 yuan in February. After finishing, it began to rebound in March. By June, the mainstream transaction price reached 550~600 yuan, which has exceeded the level of the beginning of the year. ; Ammonium sulfate from the beginning of 480 yuan at the beginning of the short-term bottom to 450 yuan and then continued to rise to about 530 yuan in June, an increase of 10.5%. In addition, although the price of urea in June was 50 to 80 yuan lower than that at the beginning of the year, the average price in the first half of the year was around 1666 yuan, higher than the average price of 50 yuan at the beginning of the year.

The energy product market rebounded slowly after the decline. Affected by factors such as outbreaks at home and abroad, and shrinking terminal demand, the spot price of international crude oil fell below US$20 per barrel in April, and related energy chemical products such as methanol and coal tar also fell sharply. Among them, methanol's average monthly transaction price fell from 2170 yuan in January to 1520 yuan in June, a 30% drop, showing a continuous decline; high-temperature coal tar prices fell from 2700 yuan at the beginning of the year to 2300 yuan in June, during the period 4 From May to May, the price was basically around 1,700 yuan, and the largest decline was more than 40%. Since the crude oil market has gradually recovered after May, energy products such as methanol, coal tar, and refined oil have also begun to bottom out. Although the market repair cycle is slower than the traditional chemical and basic chemical product markets, stabilization has become a trend.

In addition, due to the outbreak of foreign epidemics in April, the price of polypropylene pellets, a raw material for epidemic prevention materials that had previously fallen due to the decline of crude oil, suddenly increased sharply, rising from 6700 yuan to 10500 yuan in 10 days, an increase of 57%; The price of polypropylene in April soared four times. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the price of 95% ethanol rose from about 5,300 yuan to 6,500 yuan in the first week of February, an increase of 23%. However, based on the sufficient social supply capacity of such bulk products and the crackdown on speculation by the country, the market has gradually returned to sort out rationally.


On the whole, although the current epidemic situation has not been effectively contained abroad, and some uncertain geopolitical factors exist, the international chemical product circulation is still hindered, but the negative and panic period of the domestic chemical product market has passed, basically After completing the oversold repair process, the market is entering an incremental price stabilization cycle, and the market has gradually recovered and stabilized.