TDI prices surge in the short term in China

Market price in East China

On August 31, BASF TDI in Europe experienced a force majeure on the plant, and on September 1, Crestron's TDI plant in North America was declared force majeure due to a shortage of raw materials and its closure before the hurricane. Since then, the market has continuously increased, rising as much as $2600/ton this week. The market is currently low inventory shortage, exports picked up and reached a new high this year last month. Suppliers strong pull up, giving the market higher guidance prices, the market mentality is good, most bullish. Unlike the strong pull up in July, there are many positive factors supporting this month.


Recalling the 2016 TDI price exceeded 50,000 yuan, (actually in October 16 in just 5 days the price rose 20,000 yuan, after a gradual decline). This year, the situation is similar and different: the same is the price rise before the market downturn, manufacturers large losses and continued for a longer period of time, while the manufacturer's supply suffered force majeure for a substantial price increase to pull the curtain, export demand increased significantly, coinciding with the golden nine and silver ten, domestic demand picks up, the market inventory in the process of price increases gradually consumed, etc.; different is that domestic demand has not yet fully recovered this year, the proportion of radical mentality to reduce. The pullback has been sustained in 2Q 2015, peaking in October, while the pullback in 2020 is clearly relatively weak.


With an average market price of about $25,000 in 2018 and $13,000 in 2019, the expectation that manufacturers will continue to pull up this year in terms of manufacturer profitability. The follow-up needs to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer's dynamic and market follow-up.


Today's East China market price of 16,000-17,000 yuan, up 1,000 CNY/ton from yesterday, offer confusion.