Multi-factor resonance, methanol significantly weakened before the holiday

As of September 25, methanol turnover in Inner Mongolia was RMB 1320-1420/ton, Shanxi was RMB 1500-1630/ton, and Lubei was RMB 1620-1650/ton, down 80-140 RMB/ton and 10-year respectively from mid-September. 70 CNY/ton, 40 CNY/ton, Jiangsu imported cans concentrated around 1860-1880 CNY/ton, down 90 CNY/ton from mid-September, Sichuan-Chongqing Chengdu market sent around 1850-1880 CNY/ton, compared with September In the middle, it fell by 20-30 CNY/ton.

The contradiction between market supply and demand is prominent

In September, the methanol plants supporting olefins in the Northwest, such as Yan'an Energy Chemical 1.8 million tons/year, Ningxia Baofeng Phase I 1.8 million tons/year restarted in September, and Northwest Inner Mongolia Rongxin Phase I 800,000 tons/year, Yankuang The 600,000 tons/year phase I of Yulin will return to normal. Southwest Sichuan Lutianhua is restarting with 445,000 tons/year, and Yunnan Kungang plans to restart with 100,000 tons/year at the end of the month. As of September 25, the operating rate of the domestic methanol market has increased to 74.63%, an increase of 2.73 percentage points from the beginning of September. The supply of methanol market resources has been significantly enlarged.

In terms of demand, with the end of the methanol outsourcing of Yan'an Nenghua, although there is still some methanol outsourcing in the first phase of Ningxia Baofeng and Ningxia Coal, the overall outsourcing has been significantly reduced compared with September; The downstream inventory in the northern region is generally high. As the downstream stocking is basically completed, the overall downstream receiving slows down, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the methanol market has become prominent.

Pre-holiday manufacturers' inventory requirements

Since the end of September, considering that the double festival is approaching, methanol manufacturers have been arranging their warehouses and starting to ship goods during the festival. In view of the high overall downstream inventory and the overall weak intention to receive goods, manufacturers often cut prices.

As can be seen from the above comparison chart of the inventory days of the main methanol companies in the Mainland, the inventory days of the domestic methanol companies showed an increase in September. As of September 25, the inventory days of the main methanol companies in the Mainland was 8.17, an increase of 0.59 from the previous month. The performance of going to the library is obvious.

Weakening futures, rising international supply, weakening industry mentality

Recent macro market news such as the resurgence of epidemics in many European countries and the decline in crude oil have suppressed the futures market. The futures market has dropped significantly compared with the previous period. In addition, some devices in the internal and external markets of the month have recovered. For example, methanol installations in the United States, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran have all After the restart, the operating rate has recovered from 63.37% at the end of August to the current 70.2%, and the overall operating growth has increased by 6.83%. International supply has improved. In addition, as the National Day approaches, the market players have gradually withdrawn from the market and wait and see. Spot negotiations are relatively flat and multiple negatives. Under the influence of factors, the port performed poorly.

In the fourth quarter, work stoppages in the Southwest region and reduced negative effects diminished

As the fourth quarter is about to enter the fourth quarter, the impact of gas supply and the reduction of negative parking for gas companies have become the focus of attention every winter. The early shutdown has had a certain impact on the gas volume of this year's contract to be completed by the original gas head. In addition, the Russian gas import pipeline has been opened this year, and the supply side has been guaranteed; and PetroChina has begun to repair the pipeline from July to August to ensure the supply of natural gas in the southeast. , At present, there is sufficient gas in the Southwest Natural Gas Storage Tank. From this point of view, natural gas supply may remain abundant at the end of the year. It is worth mentioning that this year, affected by the epidemic, most tyrannical companies have continued to decline or stop at the beginning of the year. What's more, they have maintained their parking status for more than half a year. Later, tyrannical companies in southwestern China will stop or reduce their burdens. The possibility may be reduced.

From the current point of view, after the adjustment of the domestic methanol market in September, as the double festival approached, the trading atmosphere in various places gradually weakened. As the market changes point, and the recent macro risks are still there, the methanol futures spot in the first week after the holiday is affected or increased by the outside world, and then under the influence of fundamentals, the overall market is expected to remain weak and falling. Pay attention to the changes in olefins after the holiday.