Market Analysis - Monthly Report - September, 2020 - Triacetin

What's hot and trending this month

1) High crude price and tight supply, strong cost support.

2) Domestic acetic acid market as a whole went up in September. The raw material methanol pricehas gone up sharply this month, and the cost support is obvious.

This month's market summary

Due to the low biodiesel production, as a by-product of the crude glycerin supply tension is difficultto ease, and the high foreign offers continue, and the industry on the crude glycerin prices are stillexpected to rise. With the continuous rise of raw materials, the cost pressure of the domestic refinedglycerine factory keeps increasing, which continues to support the domestic refined glycerine market. The demand of some downstream is weak, and the enthusiasm of buying is low, so the transactionmakes the market even more favorable. At first glance, the market atmosphere seems to have improved a lot, but from the fundamental point of view, the market transaction support is not strong, which also increases the uncertainty of the sustainability of the subsequent upward market; InSeptember, the domestic acetic acid market as a whole went up, and the raw methanol price went upsharply in September, with obvious cost support. At the beginning of this month, many spot factoriesin Henan and Shandong were able to deliver goods at low prices smoothly, and their inventories fell tolow levels. In this good promotion, the supplier raised the price. In the mood of short market in theearly stage, the raw material inventory of downstream users remained low, and there was a demandfor stocking before the National Day holiday in October, so users actively entered the market topurchase, the market trading atmosphere was active, further strengthening the supplier mentality. Inthe middle of the month, due to the end of the overhaul plan of The Celanese acetic acid plant inSingapore, foreign buyers also actively purchase the reserve stock, and the increase of export price, which is also a major reason for the vast majority of acetic acid factories to maintain low inventory. But at the same time, due to the industrial utilization rate maintained at a high level, especially thenorthwest factory is affected by the difficult to find transport vehicles, inventory is difficult to godown, there is no shortage of supply, the overall increase is limited. Especially at the end of the month, downstream users have been completed in advance before the festival to prepare goods, transportation is also gradually controlled, the market attributed to weak stability.

Next month market forecast

Summary and views

In September, affected by the National Day the goods, the factory inventories low, order more, butdue to raw material, the factory have rise in price, downstream and traders buy or not to buy upfactors, positive margin, caused a certain degree of marketing hype, but the whole, the maindownstream still maintain normal work, just need to purchase, outbreaks can be largely ignored, onthe basis of the traditional peak season coming, the price cannot return to low.