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Home > Chemial News > Echemi Analysis > Market Analysis - Monthly Report - September, 2020 - Adipic acid

Market Analysis - Monthly Report - September, 2020 - Adipic acid

Echemi 2020-10-13

Market overview for the year

 



 

AA

Domestic adipic acid price trend chart 2019-2020

 

 

In September, the domesticadipic acid market fluctuated within a narrow range. At the beginning ofthemonth, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the pure benzene spotmarketweakened, which was negative for the market mentality. On the supply anddemandside, with the restart of the adipic acid maintenance device in theearly stageand the weak downstream buying, the imbalance of supply and demand stillexists, which suppresses the market mentality, and the focus ofnegotiationshas mostly declined, gradually falling to about 5900 yuan/ton. In themiddle ofthe year, the adipic acid plant was listed twice and raised a total of300yuan/ton. The intention to support the market is obvious. Holders areconcernedabout the settlement policy at the end of the month, and the offer istentative. However, there is limited stimulus for downstream buying andthemarket rise is limited. Save low prices and take volume. Near the end ofthemonth, the average listed price of raw material pure benzene Sinopec inSeptember was 3,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton from August.Supportedby costs, the new moon listing price of adipic acid plant rose sharply,with anincrease of 500 yuan/ton. The market sentiment is invigorated, but thenews of the actual fares this month is still unclear. Holders are concernedabout costpressures, low intentions are limited, some offers follow up, and somewait andsee temporarily without quotations, while downstream replenishment hasbeencompleted one after another. There are very few real orders in themarket.

 

Overall market analysis

1、International market price comparison

 

Source of supply

SEP. closing price

AUG. closing price

Up and down

FOB China Source

820-830

800-820

-20/-10

CFR China Source

840-850

820-840

-20/-10



2、Installation of adipic acid plant this month 

InAugust, the domestic average monthly operating rate of adipic acid was 58.4%.


 

LIST1

 

 

3Raw material cost and change analysis


The domestic pure benzene market fluctuated stronglythis month. At the beginning of the month, the restart of downstream equipmentdrove a rebound in demand, which stimulated the price of refined petroleumbenzene to rise, which led to an increase in the hydrogenated benzene market. However, as the new productioncapacity of pure benzene has been put into production one after another, thesupply of pure benzene has increased, and the external news is relatively weak,which has impacted market confidence, which has caused the stagflation of thepure benzene market to fall. However, in late September, the double festivalholiday is approaching. Downstream pre-holiday stocking demand is good, and thestart-up load of hydrogenated benzene has declined, the supply of pure benzenehas tightened, and the pure benzene market has risen again.

Towards the end of the month, the price of pure benzene eased as thedownstream demand for pre-holiday stocking weakened. Looking at the marketoutlook, more upstream and downstream production will be commissioned inOctober, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand. In termsof supply, Ningxia Tongue’s caring hydrogenation benzene unit is expected to beput into operation, and in terms of petroleum benzene, Sinochem Quanzhou andZhongke Refinery are also in operation. plan. Downstream

On the other hand, both Tangshan Xuyang Styrene and Lihua Yifenketonehave plans to start production. The market supply and demand pattern maychange. In the short term, the post-holiday pure benzene market will be focusedon consolidation. With the release of new downstream production capacity andincreasing demand, the pure benzene market is expected to rebound. However, westill need to pay attention to changes in supply and demand and externaltrends.

 

4Maindownstream start-up analysis

The downstream slurry started to run steadily, with an overall load of50% to 60%, and the overall starting load of the sole stock market was about70%. Waiting for the further recovery of demand in October.

The TPU market started operating at around 80%; the main factories inthe nylon field started operating at around 60%.

Affected by the Double Festival in September, the downstream inventorydemand was better than last month.

 

5Market trendforecast for next month

 

 

LIST2

 

 

Views and Summary

 

 Looking at October, "Golden September and SilverOctober" is expected to continue to boost market confidence, and driven bythe high end of the month of the factory at the end of  September and the launch of the new month, theholders have no short-term intentions to lower, but overall supply and demand underthe loose situation, the market still has the possibility of upward movement.

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