:: Most of the main factories have resumed operations

:: Downstream starts increase and demand for raw materials is stable

:: BDO market rebounds overall

Domestic BDO Price Trend Chart 2019-2020

The domestic BDOmarket rose strongly this month. As of the end of the month, the mainstreamnegotiation of bulk cargo sources in East China was RMB 8,600-8,900/ton, anincrease of RMB 600/700/ton from the previous month. Factory equipment has beenoverhauled and restarted one after another, and the start of work on the sitehas always remained low.

At the same time,due to the high price of raw materials and the relatively low BDO sellingprice, the willingness of the factory to make profits under the long-termupside down of the profit of the factory is relatively strong, and the listedprices have been raised successively during the month. At the same time,downstream PBT, PTMEG and other downstream operations have increased, and thedemand for raw materials has increased. In addition to delivery contracts andpre-orders, the factory has tightened the supply of the distribution market.

Distributors rarelyhave lower willingness to sell goods when the inventory is low, and the mood ofholding goods and reluctant to sell gradually rises. The downstream resistanceto high prices has become more obvious, and buying orders have mostlymaintained rigid demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market has weakenedslightly towards the end of the month.

Overall market analysis

1、Factory installation BDO this month

The operating rate of the alkyne aldehyde plant is 44.8%and the monthly output is 57000 tons.

2、Raw material costand change analysis

Methanol: In the short term, the supply and demand pattern will remainslack. As winter approaches, some MTO devices may be overhauled. In the fourthquarter, there are still production devices planned to be put into operation. Itis expected that the mainland market will struggle upward. In terms of ports,the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" and winter gas restrictions areexpected to continue to boost market confidence. The restoration of globaldemand will ease the pressure on coastal inventories. There is still room forupside. Some markets are expected to follow the market.

Calcium carbide: During the National Day, due to the impact oftransportation, there will be greater shipping pressure. The overall supplycapacity of the calcium carbide market will increase during the holidays.Therefore, in October, the overall market of calcium carbide may still beweakened.

3、Maindownstream start-up analysis

Under the influence of the epidemic PBTindustry, PTMEG industry to reduce the burden of production, BDO downstreamoverall start lower.

4. Next month's Market Trend Forecast

Views and Summary

At present, the supplier’s inventory is no pressure, and there is no shortage of subsequent increases in expectations. However, the downstream market after this round of market. The demand is expected to be overdrawn in advance, and later buying may gradually weaken. The supply-demand game is rare. It is expected that the market may have further upward prospects in October, but the downward trend in the downstream situation may be difficult to increase.