Morgan Stanley raises forecast for global oil demand this year

Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for global oil demand by 36% this year, citing a recovery in the Chinese economy and rising demand for air travel.

Reuters quoted a report from Morgan Stanley analysts as saying that Morgan Stanley now expects global oil demand to increase by 1.9 million barrels a day this year, higher than the previous forecast of 1.4 million barrels.

"China's traffic index has been rising steadily," the report said, adding that "flight schedules have cemented the outlook for jet fuel demand."

However, this may not lead to major shortages in the global oil market, as Morgan Stanley expects supply from production-rich countries to offset some of the demand growth.

Even so, the global oil market will remain in short supply in the second half of this year, and Brent crude oil prices will rise to between US$90 and US$100 per barrel. It was a downward revision to earlier price forecasts by analysts at Morgan Stanley, who had expected Brent to hit $100-$110 a barrel in the second half of the year.

When talking about the crude oil production of countries with large production capacity, they said: "We previously estimated that in 2023, the country's daily crude oil production will drop by about 1 million barrels year-on-year, and now we expect it to drop by 400,000 barrels."

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs investment bank predicts that Brent crude oil prices may not reach $100 a barrel until late 2023, revising its previous expectation that this would happen sooner, around mid-2023. Goldman Sachs investment bank analysts cited higher production capacity and U.S. crude output as the reason for the revision, which could drive a modest surplus in the market this year.