Market Performance Balanced, PC Holds Steady Before the Festival

February 9 news

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, in mid-February, the PC market in China showed a firm trend, with spot prices for most grades fluctuating. As of February 9th, the benchmark price for mixed PC was around 12,833.33 CNY/ton, representing a change rate of -1.03% compared to the beginning of the month.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: In early February, the overall load of China's PC polymerization enterprises showed a slight increase. The second line of Zhejiang Petrochemical, which had been restarted at the end of January, led to an average industry operating rate rebounding by 5% to over 86%, with weekly production exceeding 70,000 tons. Due to the rapid digestion of social inventory at the beginning of the year, the sales and production pressure on polymerization plants remains relatively low. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PC.

Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the Chinese Bisphenol A market continued its upward trend from late January into early February. Currently, the supply of Bisphenol A in China remains limited, while phenol and acetone—having previously risen in tandem with crude oil prices—have now stabilized at high levels. The persistently high cost of raw materials is driving up the theoretical cost of Bisphenol A, prompting holders to firmly maintain their pricing, thereby providing some support to polycarbonate (PC) costs. Looking ahead, it is advisable to closely monitor the progress of new production capacity coming online as well as the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.

Demand Side: The profitability improvement among end-user companies remains limited, and the utilization rates at downstream PC factories remain less than ideal. At the end of January, the concentrated delivery of contract orders gradually came to an end, alleviating the previous tight supply situation. Meanwhile, after prices rose, buyers have become more cautious about restocking, and with pre-holiday stockpiling largely completed, buyers’ willingness to further build inventories is weak. However, due to relatively tight supply in certain local markets, spot prices remain firm. Overall, the demand side provides only moderate support for PC spot prices.

Future Market Prediction

Before the Spring Festival, the Chinese PC market maintained a firm trend. Upstream bisphenol A prices remained on a positive trajectory, providing adequate cost support to PC. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants were largely stable with a slight increase, and there was a slight trend of easing supply in the later market. Before the holiday, trading activities in the market returned to calm, with buyers being cautious and mainly engaging in small transactions. It is expected that after the festival, the PC market may still maintain a firm trend.