Market Analysis - Monthly Report - November, 2020 - Maleic Anhydride

What's hot and trending this month

1) The MA market rises first and then stabilizes.

2) Greater supply pressure, downward pressure on the market.

This month's market summary

In November, the domestic MA market as a whole rose first and then stabilized. Since late October, the price of MA fell to a reasonable range, and the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to enter the market was improved, which led to the market rebound. Meanwhile, the spot supply of MA continued to be tight, and the market sentiment of MA rose again, and the price of MA renewed its high since September. But with the middle of the MA to a new high, the middle and downstream chase up to slow down, the high transaction turned light, risk aversion, the middle and downstream market cautious, the supply of superposition tension relieved, MA prices tend to stabilize. In November, resin off-season effect obviously, resin construction more difficult has obvious improvement, weak demand for raw materials procurement MA, and the supply side, most enterprises no parking overhaul plan, MA is expected within the construction will still maintain a high level, market supply pressure obviously, price crash rebound in performance, or weaker will run as a whole.

Next month market forecast

In November, the domestic n - butane market fluctuations, the overall weak trend. Deal atmosphere, the downstream to buy up the atmosphere more dense, more on demand into the market. CP was released in December, propane and butane both rose $20 / ton, cif cost price still rose, next month is expected to increase the focus of market trading. In November, the domestic pure benzene market ran strongly, the price rose significantly compared with last month. In the first and early benzene
market by the downstream styrene market traction prices rose after the first fall; In the second half of the positive support by the external news surface, crude oil prices rose, pure benzene continued to rise outside the market confidence restored, promote pure benzene prices stop falling and rise. In the afternoon, first of all, look at the news outside. The crude oil price is expected to remain volatile. Recently, the external price of pure benzene has been rising continuously, and the internal and external price gap has widened. In terms of supply, some petroleum benzene units shut down, but hydrogenation benzene started high, there is still room for improvement in the later period, and east China Port destocking process is slow, on the whole, the supply pressure does not decrease; On the demand side, the shutdown and maintenance equipment was restarted in early December, and some new downstream production capacity was expected to be put into operation. The demand side was  expected to increase, which supported the pure benzene market. In November, the price of MA rose to a new high, which led to a wide rise in profits. Although the price fell rapidly again and dragged the profit of MA down sharply, overall, the profit level of MA remained on the high side with large operating space. This month, the starting load of the MA plant has picked up obviously. Although some manufacturers have stopped for inspection and repair, the impact is limited. So far, the MA plant has started steadily. Next month, most of the MA enterprises have no parking maintenance plan, is expected to start work within the month will remain at a high level, the market supply pressure is obvious, MA price surge is more difficult. Recently, unsaturated resin of high and volatile market, the raw material, the early trading after pulling up, large price retracement, and other raw materials is also high pressure, the raw material fluctuations risk, UPR factory is low inventory procurement, and subsequent orders drop volume trend, maintaining increases with the increasing mining use, as the weather turns cold in the north, terminal FRP demand is expected to gradually weakened, raw materials of high slow digestion, passive follow, to order demand for flexible production. In general, the supply pressure of domestic MA market still exists in December, and the MA price may maintain weak operation. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term. With the price falling to a reasonable range, the volume of market transaction will drive the price of MA to stop falling and stabilize.

Factory stoppages in China

In November, domestic MA plants have more temporary shut-down and the operating rate is about 96%.

China's MA export trend in 2019-2020

According to customs statistics, in October 2020, China exported 2,517 tons of MA at an average export price of US $827.06 / ton, and imported 138.68 tons of MA at an average import price of US $1,385.97 / ton.

Note: The General Administration of Customs will no longer release the import and export data of January and February separately in 2020. Instead, they will be released to the public in March. January and February will be equally divided.

Summary and views

Looking forward to next month, we will focus on the supply and demand situation. In terms of supply, there is no MA device for stopping and maintenance. On the demand side, under the off-season effect, the unsaturated resin starts to decline, and it is difficult to improve significantly in the later period, and the raw material procurement slows down. On the whole, the market supply and demand pressure is high, and the MA price is difficult to perform well. At present, the industry is not confident  enough about the market in December, and it is expected that the MA price will continue to decline in the beginning of the month. With the price returning to a reasonable range and the volume of market transactions, the MA price will stop falling and stabilize.