EIA: The global oil supply landscape is changing

Recently, the EIA forecast that non-OPEC countries will account for a higher share of oil production growth this year and next. This is the complete opposite of what has happened over the past two years.

The U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana are set to outpace OPEC's gains after Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers disclosed plans to cut crude output by about 1.16 million barrels per day starting next month, EIA said.

EIA said that in the next two years, about half of the production increase predicted by non-OPEC oil-producing countries will come from the United States. U.S. crude oil production will rise 5.5% this year to 12.54 million barrels per day, and another 1.7% in 2024 to 12.75 million barrels per day.

EIA currently predicts that the average spot price of Brent crude oil will be US$85 per barrel this year, while the average price of US West Texas Intermediate crude oil is expected to be US$79.24 per barrel. Both forecasts are about $2 higher than the EIA forecast in March. The EIA expects average U.S. refinery utilization to fall to 90% this year from more than 91% last year. In addition, EIA expects U.S. oil demand to remain relatively stable, with U.S. consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels rising 0.5% to 20.4 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.6% to 20.7 million barrels per day in 2024.